Florida voter registration by party – February 2020
Bottom Line: The first voter registration info for 2020 is officially in and there’s a story to be told. All throughout 2019 we saw Republican registrations strongly outpace Democrats, while minor party and NPA registrations surged the most. With the 2020 cycle about to hit high gear, and the biggest contest in the first half of this year being a presidential primary in a hotly contested race among Democrats...we saw a significant surge for Democrats in Florida to start the year.
Tracking voter information as it becomes available is useful as it has previously helped shed light on trends leading up to Election Day in past cycles. This includes understanding in part, why pollsters were wrong about Florida in the 2016 and 2018 election cycles. Here’s where we stand in Florida through January.
These are Florida voter registration changes by party year over year.
- DEM: +53,237
- GOP: +32,492
- Minor: +2,194
- NPA: -8,356
This move by Democrats broke the tide of consistent Republican gains since the 2016 cycle. The loss of NPA’s would seem to suggest a desire to re-register as Democrats to vote in the presidential primary. In Florida you must be registered in the party to participate. Was this big bump for Democrats a rush to get in to vote in the Florida primary for President, or the start of a new trend? That remains to be seen but it’s something I’ll be closely watching in coming months. Previously we’d seen Democrats with their smallest advantage in voter registration in Florida's history that’s no longer the case. The current breakout of registered voters looks like this...
- DEM: 37%
- GOP: 35.2%
- Minor: 1.1%
- NPA: 26.7%
The longer-term trend is still favorable for Republicans due to gains made since the 2016 cycle. Democrats held a 2.5% advantage on Election Day 2016. That’s down to a 1.8% advantage currently. TBC...