Q&A of the Day – Trump’s Troubles & Georgia’s Importance in the 2024 Election
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio When was the last time a REP lost GA but won the Pres election? Also, doesn’t electoral vote change benefit REPs?
Bottom Line: Today’s note is in reference to this week’s events in Georgia and what I suggested about it in my top takeaways yesterday. Here’s the summary of what’s happened... Following Monday night’s Fulton County, Georgia indictment of the former president, and 18 of his associates, Trump “Truthed” this: A Large, Complex, Detailed but Irrefutable REPORT on the Presidential Election Fraud which took place in Georgia is almost complete & will be presented by me at a major News Conference at 11:00 A.M. on Monday of next week in Bedminster, New Jersey. Based on the results of this CONCLUSIVE Report, all charges should be dropped against me & others - There will be a complete EXONERATION! They never went after those that Rigged the Election. They only went after those that fought to find the RIGGERS! And in response to Trump, Georgia’s Republican Governor Brian Kemp posted this on X: The 2020 election in Georgia was not stolen. For nearly three years now, anyone with evidence of fraud has failed to come forward - under oath - and prove anything in a court of law. Our elections in Georgia are secure, accessible, and fair and will continue to be as long as I am governor. The future of our country is at stake in 2024 and that must be our focus. And yesterday I offered this analysis... Elections are always about the future. They’re never about the past. Anyone, including Donald Trump who runs on the past will lose. Trump can win the 2024 Presidential Election. However, he only will if he leaves the past behind. Maybe what Trump’s intending to reveal will help him legally in Georgia (though not likely), but it almost assuredly won’t help him politically in Georgia which could be a huge problem next year if he’s the GOP nominee. That takes us to today’s question...
The last time a Republican won the presidency without winning Georgia was Ronald Reagan in 1980 and even that election requires an asterisk. President Carter was the former Governor of Georgia and performed far better in his home state than elsewhere. Not only has every Republican presidential winner since 1980 won Georgia, but the state matters more today than it did back then. In 1980 Georgia was worth 12 Electoral College votes, today it’s worth 16 – more than Michigan for example. And that takes us to your question about the impact of the Electoral College changes. Had the 2024 Electoral vote changes, resulting from the 2020 Census, been in place in the 2020 election, Trump would have fared better by three Electoral College votes. Rather than Biden having won by a 306 to 232 margin, he would have won by a 303 to 235 margin. The three-vote swing would obviously be helpful in a super close election; however, the Republican candidate next year must flip a minimum of two states won by Biden in 2020 before that’s potentially a factor.
Of the states won by Trump in 2016 that flipped in 2020, Georgia is second only to Pennsylvania in terms of size and importance. Pennsylvania hasn’t proven to be as predictive of Republican presidential wins. George W. Bush won both of his elections while losing Pennsylvania. From a strategic perspective, Republicans need to be able to identify how to win Georgia in a presidential election once again. Brian Kemp illustrated what that path looks like based on how he conducted himself during his reelection campaign and what the focus of his campaign was. At the same time, Herschel Walker illustrated how the state could drift further to the left, based on the way he conducted himself and what the focus of his campaign was. Trump’s decision to hold a presser on Monday to attempt to relitigate the 2020 presidential election in Georgia is indicative of the Walker approach to Georgia’s politics as opposed to Kemp’s. It’s obviously statistically possible for Trump, or any Republican candidate, to win the presidential election next year while losing Georgia. From both a point of practicality and in an evaluation of presidential outcomes over the past 40 years, it’s hard to envision how that realistically would happen. It’s also unlikely that swing voters in other key swing states will be won over by the former president’s approach. Like many, I’ve previously suggested to the former president that he let what happened in 2020 go and focus on the future. Clearly that’s not what he intends to do – at least as of yet. In any event, Trump’s presser next Monday figures to be interesting.