What The 2024 Presidential Election Has in Common With 1924’s - Top 3 Takeaways – November 14th, 2023
- Party like it’s 1924. A booming stock market, the Jazz Age, the proliferation of radio, the advent of the road trip. 1924 had a lot going for it. I’ve previously thought that if I were to come of age at a different time in American history the early 20’s might be my choice (though that would necessarily mean having to live through the Great Depression and World War II over the next couple of decades – so then again maybe not). But my top takeaway today isn’t about some random musing on The Roaring Twenties. It’s what happened that year that kicked off a trend. While Republican Calvin Coolidge sailed to a massive Presidential win that year, it marked the first time during the century that a third-party candidate, who’d not previously been the President of the United States, won a state. In that election cycle independent candidate Robert La Follette, who aligned with the Progressive Party, won Wisconsin. And while he wasn’t broadly competitive it showed the view of the possible...that it was possible for a candidate who wasn’t a Democrat or a Republican to be able to win a state. And if a third-party candidate could win one state, perhaps in the future they could win more? The 1924 election proved to be a bit of a flash in the pan for third party efforts. The economy had been so good that by the 1928 election, Republican Herbert Hoover won in a landslide with there being little desire among voters to head in a different direction. After that election voters opted for what they viewed as greater certainty during the Great Depression and then World War II staying with Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt once again with there being little appetite for 3rd parties. However, by 1948 times had changed and voting patterns also began to change and a third-party candidate did what hadn’t been done in 56 years. Win more than one state. In that election cycle Dixiecrat candidate Strom Thurmond won four southern states. With World War II hero Dwight Eisenhower on the ballet in the next two Presidental election cycles – third party candidates once again took a back seat. But by 1960, the Southern Democrat Party emerged as a contender carrying two southern states. Then, in 1968 with the Vietnam War on the minds of most, George Wallace, running on the American Independent Party platform, reached what turned out to be the high-water mark for 3rd party candidates. Wallace carried five states and won 46 Electoral College votes. But rather than serving as a catalyst for future 3rd party success Wallace’s wins proved fleeting...so fleeting that those five wins in 1968 mark the last time a Presidential candidate who wasn’t a Democrat or a Republican won a state. Next year it will have been 56 years since that election.
- History has a way of repeating itself. Just as the country previously went 56 years without a third-party candidate who wasn’t already the President of the United States – winning multiple states, could we potentially see it happen again? On the one hand, it’s been so long that the two major political parties have had an iron grip making it feel implausible. After all, Ross Perot won 19% of the vote in 1992 but still didn’t have even 1 Electoral College vote to show for it. On the other hand, if it’s ever going to happen again, this would seemingly be the cycle for it to happen. You’ve seen the headlines; you’ve heard the stories. The 2024 Presidential election is being called the “Election No One Wants” - that was a recent Bloomberg headline following polling last week that showed 65% of voters don’t want Joe Biden to be reelected with 60% of voters not wanting Trump to be reelected. It’s clear that if the 2024 presidential election ends up being a 2020 rematch, that most voters would be holding their nose and voting for what they perceive to be the lesser of two evils. That is unless many decide to break another way...
- The more the merrier? Since Joe Manchin announced he’s not running for reelection in the senate, speculation has been running rampant that he, or Mitt Romney, or both could be the Presidential candidates for the No Labels ticket. While that remains to be seen for reasons I’ll address in today’s Q&A, what does appear to be the case is that the more 3rd party candidates that enter the race, the more likely it may be for even more to enter the race that could serve to make states more competitive and less predictable. In national presidential polling, 3rd party candidates RFK Jr. and Cornel West are already averaging 20% between them. A number’s that’s higher than what Ross Perot pulled in 1992, and number that’s also higher than when George Wallace won five states in 1968. It’s clear that there’s an appetite for 3rd party candidates the likes of which we haven’t seen in at least 56 years. In fact, the last presidential election cycle a third-party candidate won over 20% of the national popular vote just so happens to be the last Presidential election cycle in which a former President of the United States attempted to make a political comeback by running for President once again...Theordore Roosevelt in 1912. Coincidence? Maybe? But then again, the 56-year window between any kind of 3rd party success would also be an interesting coincidence. History does have a way of repeating itself and I’d imagine that within the previous 56-year window most voters thought the two-party system was set in stone just as it feels like these days. Do I think in the end a third-party candidate will be the next President of the United States? No. Do I think a higher percentage of voters may vote for 3rd party or independent candidates than have voted for them in any of our lifetimes? Yes. And that could make things very interesting in the end. If you’re not on the Democrat or Republican ticket, strategically you might be thinking the more the merrier. Which could make it more likely that credible names make third party or independent bids in the end. One thing I’m certain of... The 2024 presidential election cycle will be the most interesting we’ve ever seen.