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Brian Mudd

The politics of AARP, Rubio on "Opportunity Inequality", New Jersey's loss if Florida's gain & more:

 
The politics of AARP, Rubio on

Cheat Sheet Q & A:

My husband and I are considering joining AARP because of the numerous discounts and benefits that are available through membership.  Our concern is that if join we may be supporting politicians and issues that we don't personally support.  How do we find out where our money would be going? 

Bottom Line:  AARP is a very politically active organization.  They also do have a distinct political bend to the money the spend on political considerations.  So first I’ll break down the money going to specific political parties.  Here is the break down by cycle since 2000:

·         2000:  97% to Democrats – 3% to Republicans

·         2002:  98% to Democrats – 2% to Republicans

·         2004:  89% to Democrats – 11% to Republicans

·         2006:  96% to Democrats – 4% to Republicans

·         2008:  77% to Democrats – 23% to Republicans

·         2010:  90% to Democrats – 10% to Republicans

·         2012:  75% to Democrats – 23% to Republicans – 2% to third parties

So you can clearly see where their political loyalties lie.  That being said the biggest money spend on political considerations isn’t on candidates or parties.  It’s on issues.  They typically are donating less than $100,000 per year to candidates.  They spend many millions per year on lobbying.  For example in 2013 alone they spent nearly $10 million lobbying on more than 30 different issues.  Over the past decade they’ve averaged $15 million per year in lobbying on issues.  Given the hundreds of issues they’ve lobbied on over the years it’s difficult to apply ideology to all or even many of them.  Perhaps most instructive is the one they’ve gained the most attention for and the one they’ve spent the most money lobbying over the past eight years.  The Affordable Care Act.

It’s no secret that the AARP was one of the single biggest backers of ACA spending somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million pushing for its passage and providing lots of cover through their materials.  Not all issues are ideological in nature but its generally safe to say that AARP’s lobbying philosophy is consistent with their pledged party support. 

If you have a topic or question you’d like me to address email me:  brianmudd@clearchannel.com

Audio Report:

 

Rubio on – “Opportunity Inequality”:

Bottom Line:  Congratulations to Gay Gaines and Marie Davis of the Palm Beach Republican Club for hosting an outstanding reception for Senator Marco Rubio at the Colony last night.  Senator Rubio spoke for more than a half hour on the amazing opportunities that have historically existed in the United States and still do.  He also honed in on what is holding back our economy and most importantly greater economic opportunity and growth.  One characterization was new to me and also exceedingly profound in my view.  Senator Rubio said our problem isn’t income inequality it’s “opportunity inequality”.

Marco articled the many changes in the level of skill required for many of the middle class professions today.  He used his parents as an example of how times have changed.  He outlined how his family immigrated to the US with very little.  His Dad was a bartender and his Mom cleaned houses.  During their time those occupations allowed them to enter the middle class and better their situation.  He pointed out that times have changed.  Those professions often won’t enable a middle class lifestyle when attempting to raise a family in 2014.  He pointed out that many people even who have work, let alone those who don’t, require more education to achieve the jobs that do enable upward mobility but don’t have the money or the time to be able to attain that education.  He talked about an innovative idea of new “degrees” that would be a culmination of work experience and classes taken online or in a classroom here and there that would eventually provide a path to receive a degree that would open up new opportunities. 

Anyway the big takeaway for me was premise.  Our issue isn’t income inequality, it’s opportunity inequality.  If one has greater access to opportunity, the income will follow as they prove their value in their profession. 


Audio Report:  
 

How many companies are still checking credit reports as a condition of employment?

Bottom Line:  Prior to the Great Recession the average company checked a credit report and/or score.  At the peak more than 60% of companies would run credit during the hiring process.  One the recession and housing crisis hit many cried foul as they were a victim of circumstance, in some cases, no fault of their own and the only way they’d be able to improve their credit would be to obtain employment once again.  Well some companies did agree and have dropped the practice. 

·         Currently 47% of all employers will run credit during the hiring process

So it’s lower but there is still a good chance it will happen so here are two important considerations:

·         This is a critical reminder about the importance of managing your credit to the best of your ability but also…

·         It’ critical that you help establish good credit with your kids

Too many young adults are avoiding credit altogether in an attempt to avoid debt.  That’s not a good idea.  Establishing good credit doesn’t require having to go into debt.  The unemployment rate is highest among young adults and not having established or good credit isn’t helping.   

Audio Report:   

New Jersey's loss is Florida's gain:

Bottom Line:  Several years ago New Jersey added an additional “millionaires” tax on upper income earners.  The effect since has been pretty incredible. 

·         An estimated $5.5 billion in lost taxable income per year has left New Jersey each year since 2010

This gets right back to a point I’ve often articulated.  Everyone has a threshold of what they’ll tolerate before they change their behavior.  In the case of targeted tax increases…  Every upper income earner has a threshold of how much tax they’re willing to tolerate.  It can vary by person but once that threshold is breached the wealthy have something that most don’t.  Complete flexibility.  Most people cant’ just pick up and relocate.  Most wealthy individuals can.  And they’ve been doing it.  So naturally the number one destination of New Jersey migrants…  Florida. 

Now not all New Jersey transplants are wealthy but the numbers over the last three years are demonstrating just how much Florida is benefiting economically from these transplants. 

 

·         The average per capita income in Florida is about $27,000

·         The average household income in Florida is about $45,000

So what about the profile of the folks from New Jersey?

·         The average income per capita is $73,000

·         Therefore an average two person household income would total nearly $150,000

So they benefit from not having to pay personal income tax and we benefit from their economic capability in our local economy.  So…  Keep it up liberal states.  Keep sending your residents and their money to us. 

Audio Report:  

 

If you have this final four, so do many others around you:

Bottom Line:  So…  The most common final four being picked?

·         Florida

·         Arizona

·         Louisville

·         MichiganState

All told about 9% of all brackets being filled out have that final four combination.  Even the President has that bracket.  Here’s the thing…  The odds of this occurring are far worse than even 9%. 

Earlier in the week I mentioned that based on history, favored teams win 70% of the time in the NCAA Tournament.  Well.  Florida and Arizona are 1 seeds buts the other two are fours.  Statistically that outcome doesn’t compute.  There is only a 1.5% change of that final four occurring.  So…  Perhaps you may think to mix your bracket up a little. 

But then again these are just statistics and that’s why we play the games…

Audio Report:

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