Who will win the governors races in New Jersey and Virginia today:

Who will win the governors races in New Jersey and Virginia today:  

Bottom Line: We have two states that will elect new Governors today. As is tradition, New Jersey and Virginia both feature off-election year races for their states. As I'm inclined to do given current accredited polling and using history as a guide we can glean into what's most likely to occur today.  

When projecting the outcomes in any particular election there are three important ingredients.  

  • Current accredited polling that can be averaged together 

  • Historical results in a like election 

  • Like elections that occur in like circumstances 

First let's look at Virginia... Here's the change in actual voting outcomes on Election Day compared to the average polling on Election Day: 

2013: +3.5 gain by GOP on Election Day 

2009: +4.1 gain by GOP on Election Day  

2005: +2.7 gain by DEM on Election Day 

2001: +.9 gain by GOP on Election Day 

Average of past four elections in Virginia is: 

+1.5% for GOP on Election Day 

In like elections (incumbent GOP President): 

+.9 for DEM on Election Day 

Final accredited polling: D +3.3% 

Final outcome: - Ralph Northam (D) wins by 1.8% - 4.2% 

In New Jersey the story is a lot clearer. Here's the Election Day change compared to polling:  

2013: +1.8 gain by DEM on Election Day 

2009: +3.3 gain by GOP on Election Day  

2005: +4.4 gain by DEM on Election Day 

2001: No accredited polling  

Average of past three elections in New Jersey is: 

1% Dem gain on Election Day 

In like elections (incumbent GOP President): 

+4.4% gain by DEM on Election Day  

So, what's the outcome?  

In New Jersey: The final accredited polling D+ 13.75% 

Final outcome - Phil Murphy (D) wins by 14.75% - 18.15%

 

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