Florida’s a Top 5 Destination for Teachers, #2 For Real Estate & A Partial Shutdown – Top 3 Takeaways – September 29th, 2023

Another narrative busted. I never set out to be a prolific narrative buster...it’s just that the combination of outright lies, false reporting and the absence of objective journalism has created that reality. I’m busting narratives about as quickly as a puppy pops bubbles being blown by a baby (or something like that – I'll admit it’s probably not my best analogy). Few false narratives have been more prominently misreported than Florida’s teacher shortage. The narrative, and related lies, that Florida’s teachers have been fleeing from the state in mass due to Governor DeSantis and the state of Florida’s policies pertaining to parental rights in education have persisted for so long now that media outlets across the state readily report that we have the “worst shortage in history”. Here’s a hint- that’s not true. The falsehoods have taken hold to such an extent that media outlets masquerading as objective, a la FloridaTrend, conduct multi-month poll questions like this: Why do you believe Florida’s teacher shortage is at an all-time high? Here's another hint it isn’t. The premise of the question was false. That’s also the case with most of the related stories they highlight in their feed supporting the narrative. As I said back in January: And that takes us to this claim by (Florida Education Association President) Spar: “Florida, I think, is one of the worst in the nation. There are some studies out there that show we have the second most number of vacancies in the nation right now”. Yes, Florida has one of the largest teacher shortages by way of vacancies as we’re the third most populous state. What Spar said, however, is both literally and practically inaccurate. Florida’s population accounts for 6.8% of the national population – yet Florida’s teacher shortage is 4.7% of the national total. Florida’s population adjusted teacher shortage is 45% below the national average. What’s changed since then? Florida’s teacher vacancy rate has dropped by another half of a percent to 4.2% most recently. But this story isn’t just about relieving lies that have been spouted by the head of the teacher’s union and the willing news media across the state which accept and report his lies as though they are facts. It’s about a new accredited study which proves to be the biggest narrative buster of all. The full narrative advanced by the FEA and reported breathlessly by local and state news media is that the state’s education policies have both chased teachers away and kept teachers away from the state. Thus, that’s why there’s the “record teacher shortage” - which there isn’t...and why we have the “worst shortage in history” - which we don’t. So, a national study of teachers found the fifth most desired state to teach in is...Florida. The study found that Florida is the #5 destination for teachers in the country and the top destination in the eastern United States (the top four are all out west – California, Colorado, Washington & Oregon). Now, I want you to think about how many “teacher shortage” stories you’ve heard from local and state news media. I want you to think about how long they’ve been reporting those stories. Now, think about how many you’ve heard about this national teacher study that’s been out for two days and shows there’s nowhere east of Colorado that more teachers want to be and want to teacher than in Florida. Any questions?
There’s a new #2... For real-estate values. Nothing goes straight up in value forever, but the closest thing to it over the past decade has been Florida’s real-estate market. While real-estate has appreciated just about everywhere – especially since the pandemic...nowhere have the gains been bigger than right here with our ever-appreciating homes. Many have attempted to predict the peak in our prices, for multiple years now, however not even the combination of the highest inflation in over forty years and highest mortgage rates in over twenty years have been able to stop Florida’s real-estate appreciation. My consistent position over the past two years when asked if I think Florida’s housing market has peaked is this. Has Florida become less desirable? Because until and unless you can point me to something that suggests the answer is yes – prices are heading higher. And that’s exactly what we’ve seen. A new Zillow marketplace report shows the value of Florida’s real estate is now the 2nd highest in the country. According to Zillow, the value of Florida’s residential real estate market is now $3.81 billion, second only to California, a state with nearly twice the population. It speaks volumes about the demand for Florida’s real estate as we’re the 3rd most populous state in the country, with eight million fewer residents than Texas, yet we’re now #2 for total property values. Zillow’s study shows that for the country overall values peaked in May of last year – but not here. And in South Florida in particular, our story is one of the top three in the country. Since the onset of the pandemic the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro has experienced 86.6% appreciation making our metro the fifth most valuable real-estate market in the country (sitting just behind substantially larger metros in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Boston). By way of comparison, we’re the 11th largest metro in the country, in population, and the 5th most valuable housing market in the nation.
Less federal government? Sign me up. Maybe there will be a partial government shutdown this weekend, maybe there won’t. But if there is, here’s what you should know. 1) The sun will rise 2) The only way you’ll even notice that there is one is if President Biden goes out of his way to try to make you feel it a la President Obama when he spent more money to keep the National Parks closed than it would have cost to keep them open. If there’s a partial government shutdown the only lament that I would have is to not make it permanent. A partial government shutdown will impact only “non-essential” services. Which a) a federal government that’s $33 trillion in debt and growing by the day shouldn’t be providing in the first place and b) Which would still leave us running deficits by the day because our country can’t even afford what’s been considered “essential” government services. We shouldn’t lament 15% less federal government for a short period of time...we should embrace it and make it permanent...and then keep going to downsize the size of our bloated bureaucracy to that of something that we could actually afford. Which, by the way if we did, there would never be another government shutdown again. It’s a permanent solution to this problem. You’re welcome.