Jobs, Housing-Hurricanes & Reading DeSantis’ Tea Leaves – Top 3 Takeaways – December 1st, 2022

There was some leisure and a bit of hospitality, but pretty much less of everything else. Wednesday’s ADP Private sector jobs report brought about a lot of insight into what’s happening with employers and industries as the impact of the highest interest rates in over twenty years is being felt across the economy. Not much of it was good. The headline number of 127,000 jobs added during November, the lowest monthly total since January. The number of industries shedding jobs, greater than the number of industries adding them. Not that we weren’t already aware that the job market is no longer what it once was, what with the daily announced layoffs by household names who’d previously been stating they couldn’t find enough people to fill the holes they needed to fill – yesterday it was DoorDash – but it’s clear the tide in the labor market is turning much more quickly now. Were it not for large job gains in the Leisure and Hospitality sector, where 224,000 jobs were added last month, we would have been looking at a significant loss of jobs overall. There were net job losses in information, financial services and professional and businesses services. Not good. But even more ominous...there were significant job losses in both the construction and manufacturing sectors – which are leading economic indicators. So are small businesses and they shed jobs as well. We’ll get the government jobs report on Friday, but the trend appears to be in and it’s quickly pointing to a jobs market that’s chillier than the weather. It’s also a sign that the risk of reentering a recession is rising but maybe not so much in Florida. That’s because...
Hurricanes nor higher housing prices have made Florida less desirable. Real-estate firm Redfin’s latest relocation report shows Florida’s still far and away the most desirable destination for those looking to relocate. Of the top ten metros for future relocations in the country, Florida holds four of the slots. The top four Florida metros which are among the top ten nationally are Miami 2nd, Tampa 4th, Cape Coral 6th and North Port-Sarasota 7th. Meanwhile the continued fleeing of folks from cities like New York, San Franscisco and Chicago continues. The continued high rate of demand for what Florida has to offer will soften the economic blow from whatever may happen nationally. That includes the potential for Florida to avoid a recession altogether as was the case in the first half of this year when the national economy shrank for two consecutive quarters, while Florida’s economy continued to grow throughout. This real-estate news is especially helpful on back of the recent report from GoBankingRates detailing the most vulnerable housing markets in Florida based on mortgage delinquencies and home vacancy rates. The five most vulnerable according to the report are the Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Gainesville, Miami and Jacksonville markets. For now, it appears that there’s more than enough demand from those outside of our state still looking to move here, that any real-estate weakness is likely to be mitigated and elevated foreclosure rates can be digested without a systemic falling out of Florida’s real-estate market – especially in South Florida where the demand is currently highest.
Reading the tea leaves. You’re familiar with the expression but are you familiar with the origin of the saying? Originally dating back to fortune tellers in ancient Greece, it’s the practice of literally “reading” or interpreting the designs of one’s tea leaves. Can you find the shape of an angel in your tea leaf? That’s said to mean good news is on the way. Do you see a circle by chance? That means you’ll soon find love. While to me it sounds like it's as reliable as relying on fortune cookies, I’m far from a professional tea leaf reader. But as an amateur reader, if I’m attempting to infer what the leaves in the DeSantis household might say...I'd suspect they’d be indicating someone running. Not literally necessarily. While the true intent of Governor DeSantis regarding potential 2024 ambitions remains a closely guarded secret. One held so tightly that not even the leaves have leaked the secret, there are increasingly more leaves showing up to be read. Yesterdays was the biggest leaf to date as Fox News Digital was the first to report that Governor DeSantis will be releasing a personal memoir on February 28th. Personal memoirs being published aren’t at all unusual with notable figures. Personal memoirs published by 44-year-olds are much more so. Personal memoirs published by a 44-year-old who will just be starting a second term as governor would qualify as highly unusual (as in it probably has never happened before). And then there’s the title and the premise. The Courage to Be Free: Florida’s Blueprint for America’s Revival. Now maybe DeSantis is hoping that Americans will read it and decide to implement the blueprint themselves. Possible. Maybe it’s that he intends to illustrate what he intends to run on as a platform for president. At this point that feels probable. Especially when the publisher states that the book will: Center on critical issues that brought [DeSantis] to the center of the debate over the future of our country. He shares his thinking from when he was fighting back against COVID mandates and restrictions, critical race theory, woke corporations, the partisan legacy media. It also promises to highlight his “bold, substantial policy achievements”. Now it’s possible the timing of this is coincidental with a message that’s timely. And there’s no doubt that the DeSantis family, which isn’t wealthy, could benefit considerably from having what will likely be a national bestseller on the shelves sooner than later. But if we’re reading tea leaves...