Tracking time - The Race to be Florida's next Governor

Tracking time - The Race to be Florida's next Governor   

Bottom Line: The race for Florida's next Governor is likely to the most hotly contested from start to finish we've seen. Multiple credible candidates for both parties for the primaries and what's certain to be as hotly contested of a general election as we've seen in Florida and is likely to take place nationally this year (be mindful that state and even occasionally local elections are often nationalized these days).    

Let's start with the Democrats...   

According to the average accredited polling over the past week...   

  • Gwen Graham (Former US Rep): 16% (-4 vs. last week)  

  • Philip Levine (Former Miami Beach mayor): 15% (-2 vs. last week)  

  • Andrew Gillum (Tallahassee Mayor): 10% (flat vs. last week)  

  • Christopher King (Entrepreneur/Real-Estate investor): 3% 

Notably 56% of Democrats are undecided leaving this race as about wide-open as it could be. What's interesting is that we have more undecided Democrats today compared to just over a week ago. Christopher King could prove to be a wildcard in this race. The Orlando real-estate investment professional shows up in tracking for the first time this week just as many more Democrats are expressing that they don't yet have a preferred candidate. It's notable, and potentially troubling news for the two lead candidates, that they're actually losing support as another candidate is starting to show in the polls. In primaries it's important to know that the less name recognition a candidate has among voters - the more potential upside they have if they can win over support as voters become more familiar with them.  

It's a slightly different version of a similar thing on the right.   

  • Adam Putnam (Florida's Ag Commissioner): 23% (-4%)  

  • Ron Destanis  (US Representative): 20% (-3%) 

  • Richard Corcoran (not declared): 5% 

  • Bob White (Florida Liberty Caucus chairman): 1% 

Much like the Democrats, the top two Republican candidates have dropped a bit of support over the past week which is unusual at this point in the process. Also, in common, a new comer in polling this week. Bob White who's attempting to appeal to Libertarian leaning Republicans. House Speaker Richard Corcoran is also polling despite not being in the race which muddies things just a bit. Adam Putnam has come under strong attacks over the past week as his close ties to the NRA have been used by political adversaries in the wake of the Parkland shooting.  

We're still just getting warmed up in this mid-term cycle. Until next week...

 

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