June's Hurricane History & a preview of the 2018 season
Bottom Line: Hurricane season is once again upon us. How's it June already btw? Last year's hurricane season was 42% more active than normal and after years 11 years of dodging hurricanes in Florida through 2015. Hermine hit the panhandle in 2016 and Irma of course rocked our world last year. If you're looking for a silver lining – you have to travel all the way back to 1950 to find the last cycle that resulted in Florida being struck with hurricanes in more than two consecutive years. Hopefully that holds this year.
In any event here's a breakdown of this year's forecasts and June's history.
According to Colorado State University we'll have 14 named storms, NOAA says 13 (midpoint of their guidance), the Weather Channel is predicting 12
Of those storms CSU says 6 will become hurricanes, NOAA says 7 (midpoint), Weather Channel is at 5
Put them altogether and we average 13 named storms and six hurricanes (an average to slightly above average season)
The NOAA and CSU forecasts lineup similarly - with a slightly above average seasons while the Weather Channel's forecast is a bit more favorable. And of course, we've already had a named storm before the season officially started for the third straight year...So, what does June typically look like?
Going back to the onset of record keeping for tropical storms and hurricanes - 1851 - here's how much activity has taken place in June:
5% of all tropical storms have formed in June and just 3% of all hurricanes have occurred during the first month of hurricane season. That being said, June storms do tend to form closer to the US and are more likely to make landfall (as we saw with Alberto). While just 3% of all hurricanes have formed in June 7% of all landfalls in the US have occurred during the month.
Here's the good news... 2% of the storms that form occur prior to hurricane season...So technically we're 2% of the way through hurricane season as it begins.