July's Hurricane History – How far we really have to go...
Bottom Line: There are six months to hurricane season but as you're likely more than aware, there's nothing even remotely equitable about the activity within them. After a super quiet June to start hurricane season this year, thankfully, here's how far through hurricane season we really are at this point...
Record keeping for the Atlantic hurricane season began officially in 1851. By taking a look at how many storms have formed in each month, here's how far through hurricane season we typically are by July:
7.3% of all tropical storms have occurred prior to July
4% of all hurricanes have occurred prior to July
In other words, we have well over 90% of hurricane season in front of us still. July is the 4th most active month for tropical storm development and fifth most active for hurricane formation. So, what typically happens in July?
We average .7 tropical storms & .3 hurricanes
In essence, in the typical year, we only average one named tropical system during July. The 2017 hurricane season was 42% more active than normal and if you're looking to compare this year to last – we already had three named systems by the time we entered July. Another way of looking at it is that through the first month of hurricane season – we've had 67% less activity compared to the same time a year ago. Let's hope that's a trend. As a reminder here's what the forecasts called for this year.
According to Colorado State University we'll have 14 named storms, NOAA says 13 (midpoint of their guidance), the Weather Channel is predicting 12
Of those storms CSU says 6 will become hurricanes, NOAA says 7 (midpoint), Weather Channel is at 5
Put them altogether and we average 13 named storms and six hurricanes (an average to slightly above average season)