Part 1: Tracking Time – An update on Florida's biggest races - The race to be our Governor
Bottom Line: We're now under six weeks away from Florida's primaries which means that we're starting to get down to crunch time. Floridians are notoriously late to engaging the primary process and with high percentages of undecided voters in big races – this year appears to be no exception. First up let's take a look at Florida's Gubernatorial races...
Both parties have had wide-open races this year and I've never seen a high-profile race so wide-open on both sides this late into the cycle in our state. Starting with the Democrats here's where we stand with an average of the most recent accredited polling (using only polling conducted since Greene entered the race):
Without a doubt the momentum candidate in this race is Jeff Greene. There've been four accredited polls in this race since he entered, and he's gained in each one, starting at 3% and most recently hitting 22%. What's clear is that the biggest potential loser from Greene's momentum is Philip Levine. In the same four polls since Greene entered the race he's dropped from 27% to 19%. With 30% of Florida's Democrats still undecided and the leader averaging 23% - it's still as wide open as we've seen this late in the primary cycle. More to come...
On the Republican side of the isle there's a momentum candidate as well and it's Ron DeSantis. Using the three accredited polls that've been released since the debate it's crystal clear who benefited the most from that forum. In the three polls prior to that debate Ron DeSantis was averaging 18% with Adam Putnam averaging 33%. Here's where the candidates stand today...
That's one heck of a turnaround. DeSantis has gained 24 points since the debate and Putnam has lost 5. Much like the Democrats there are still nearly 30% of voters still in play (about 2% are committed to Nathan and White) - so anything can happen but if Florida's Agriculture Secretary is going to be Florida's Republican representative for Governor he's got to shift the momentum fast. I've mentioned from the beginning that the most difficult race Putnam would likely run this year would be the primary against DeSantis. That's now proving to be true. And last but not least...Florida's race for Senate.