Part 2: South Florida's Mid-term political landscape will potentially shape the country
Bottom Line: In the first part of today's story I ID'd three US House races in South Florida that are likely to tell the tale of who controls the house in 2019 and our heavyweight senate race that's likely a tell in the senate as well. Here are a few important takeaways from part one of my story.
Democrats will gain seats this year barring a massive political shift based on a massive geopolitical event that'd be advantageous for Republicans between now and Election Day (the 8% chance for Republicans was low but now it's clear it's gone)
The outcome of the three South Flordia House races I highlighted will almost certainly tell the story of house control next year
The outcome of our senate race will do the same
First let's look at US House control...
Three of the most vulnerable Republican seats in congress are in South Florida. Florida's 18th, 26th and 27th Districts. Here's the bottom line. In virtually all early modeling/projecting that I've started to do there are very strong outcomes nationally tied to the outcome in these three races. Here's what that looks like... Scenarios so far...
Democrats are almost certain to pick up one of these seats with the 27th being the most vulnerable of the three for Republicans with the retirement of Ros-Lehtinen
If Democrats pickup at least two of the three there's over a 90% chance they'll control the house next year
If Democrats pickup all three there's virtually a 100% chance they'll control the house
Should Republicans hold onto at least two of these three there's a 76% chance they'll retain control in the house
Should Republicans hold onto all three there's a virtual 100% chance they'll retain control
In Florida's senate race it's a different version of a similar thing. What's different about this conversation is that Democrats already hold the seat – so winning is simply retention rather than advancement but the implications nationally are similar to the SFL House races I cited.
Should Rick Scott beat Bill Nelson, there's a near 100% chance that Republicans will retain control of the senate
Should Bill Nelson defeat Rick Scott in this race there's a near 50-50 chance that Democrats would gain control of the senate
What I've found by digging in deeper into these races is that the info I've uncovered matches the perception that exists. That it'll be easier for the Democrats to take the House than the Senate this year but that it is very much possible for them to take both. It's also clear that as Florida and specifically South Florida goes – so will likely the control of both nationally. I'll have a lot more on these races as well get closer but as the landscape crystalizes it's becoming increasingly clear that how we vote will impact not just our districts and state but the country as a whole.