Will Florida's voter's turnout? How will they turn out?

posted by Brian Mudd - 

Will Florida's voter's turnout? How will they turn out? Those are the questions... 

Bottom Line: These are stories you shouldn't miss and my takes on them...  

Excerpt: The party’s liberal base is energized and infuriated, motivated by a deep antipathy to President Trump. But the enthusiasm runs deepest among an electoral bloc that is mostly white, female and affluent. To maximize their gains — they need to flip 23 GOP seats to take the House — Democrats need voters of color to show up. 

“There is no blue wave in November 2018 without black or brown people,” said Symone Sanders, a Democratic strategist. 

Hot Take: Recently, I broke down primary and special election turnout and pointed out that projected turnout is often overrated. Part of it, especially in left leaning politics, is the lack of even registering to vote. Often the loudest haven’t even bothered to register let along led the charge to vote. Colin Kaepernick is a perfect example. Remember when we found that he was willing to wear clothing depicting police officers as pigs and politically protest on the sidelines in 2016 but he didn’t even vote that year?  

As I’ve pointed out only 64% of adults can vote because only 64% are registered. In Florida we do a bit better than the national averages but still see relatively light turnout considering those eligible. Among registered Florida voters 51% turned out in the 2014 midterm elections and 75% in the 2016 general election. We always do see a surge in turnout for the general elections over primaries as well. In the 2014 midterms only 18% participated in the primaries and only 46% in 2016. That means that we don’t really know how extensive the partisan enthusiasm will be in two months but more than twice as many people will show up to vote in our state and around our country. But about the assertion that people of color will determine the outcome of the midterms. I agree with the premise that minority voter turnout could be a deciding factor. I’m less certain about how that vote plays out.  

  • Among black voters President Trump’s average approval rating today is nine points higher than where it started in January of 2017 

  • Among Hispanics, President Trump’s average approval rating is averaging eight points higher 

Without a doubt most, minorities who vote in November will likely be voting for Democrats. But if there is increased turnout and many more may consider Republicans due to their improved view of President Trump’s policies, it might not have the effect most politicos are used to seeing. Florida will be ground zero for this conversation in November because of our demographics and toss up Senate race, Governor's race and three toss-up South Florida Congressional races.  

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