Florida’s biggest races & South Florida’s tossups

Where we stand with Florida’s biggest races and South Florida’s Congressional tossups 

Bottom Line: A week from today we’ll know who the winners are. With six days to go where do we stand? First, let’s take a look at our two most high-profile statewide races...  

Using just accredited polling of likely voters over the past week here’s what we’re averaging... 

  • Nelson: 46%  
  • Scott: 45%   

Bill Nelson has never had a Senate race decided by less than 5%. Rick Scott has never won by even 2%. This race will doubtless be Nelson’s closest race to date and if Scott wins, he’ll almost certainly be staring at a 1%ish type of win yet again. Governor Scott has been a closer previously. For example, in 2014 he trailed by 1% in the polls entering Election Day and pulled out a 1% win. On to Florida’s Governor's race... Likewise using only accredited polling of likely voters from the past week... 

  • Gillum: 47%      
  • DeSantis: 44% 

We’ve had some wild polling suggesting unrealistic leads for Gillum recently, along with polling suggesting DeSantis surging into a decent lead. The truth has been and likely currently is something in-between which is what we see here. This is likely to be a tight race on Election Night one way or another. Gillum has consistently peaked at around 48% in this race but hasn’t seemingly been able to break through to run out to a win. The key to this race is whether DeSantis can do in the general election what Gillum did to win his primary. Consolidate the undecided voters. There’s an opportunity for him to do that and pull out a 2%ish win at best or see enough voters turn to a 3rd party that’d likely benefit Gillum in this race.  

Now to South Florida’s Congressional Tossups:  

District 18: 

  • Mast: 53% 
  • Baer: 44% 

The passage of Brian Mast’s signature legislation, the Water Act, which finally addresses comprehensively, water management throughout central and south Florida, likely sealed the deal for him. In a mid-term cycle that’s historically one that should be favorable, no one can take anything for granted but Brian Mast is a clear-cut front-runner to win re-election. 

District 26: 

  • Curbelo: 45% 
  • Mucarsel-Powell: 45% 

In one of the most closely watched Congressional Districts, one Hillary Clinton won by 16% but that Curbelo won by double-digits himself, it’s an absolute toss up as of now. I don’t mean to overstate the significance of this race, what I’m about to say is a bit of an oversimplification but will prove to be true. If Curbelo wins, Republicans have a chance to keep the House. If he loses Democrats will almost certainly win the House.  

District 27: 

  • Shalala: 45% 
  • Salazar: 45% 

This is the most closely watched race in the country. Clinton won by 20 points and Ros-Lehtinen won by ten. With her retirement this was the top pick up target of Democrats nationally entering 2018. That it’s shaping up to be close is actually to Maria Elvira Salazar’s credit. Here’s another oversimplification that’s likely to be truer than not. If Salazar were to pull out the win, Republicans would likely hang onto control of the House. 

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