Political reset. President Trump’s approval ratings by state tell a story

Political reset. President Trump’s approval ratings by state paint a picture  

Bottom Line: As we’re turning the page on the 2018 election cycle – at least after tomorrow’s special election in Mississippi for a US Senate seat, we’re essentially ushering the second half of the 1st term of President Trump. Starting in 2019 I’ll begin my series projecting the historical likelihood of President Trump’s reelection chances. If you’ve missed my recent story on the topic here’s where the conversation begins – Trump has a 65% change of winning re-election – simply because he’s an incumbent President running for re-election. That’s also just the tip of the iceberg. As many in media and the polling business once again focus on factors that may or may not have any relevance to our current views, let alone 2020 – let’s start here. How do we feel about President Trump by state?   

If you’ve learned nothing else from 2000 and 2016 about Presidential Elections – it should be that states and Electoral votes, not the national popular vote, are the only factors that matter. Morning Consult keeps up with monthly approval ratings of President Trump by state. Right now, it tells a pretty compelling story.  

  • 25 states currently hold a net positive approval rating for President Trump 

In the polling age (since the 1930’s), there’s never been an incumbent President with a net positive approval rating running for reelection that hasn’t won. That’s a pretty powerful historical trend. Those 25 states represent 247 of the needed Electoral votes to win election. Florida happens to be one of those states. President Trump’s net approval rating is currently +2% in Florida – ranking 22nd nationally in overall approval of our President. This is all part of what I’ll be watching as we wade into the 2020 discussions. If President Trump, simply holds steady where he currently is he’d be a prohibitive favorite to win reelection.

 

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