How many Americans are truly “independent” in 2019? Here's the answer

How many Americans are truly “independent” in 2019? Here’s the answer

Bottom Line: In recent years I’ve made a point of pointing out that independents really aren’t all that “independent”. They just typically don’t like to ID with a particular political party. Come Election Day however, most break a very predictable way. In recent cycles I’d ID’d approximately 8% of voters who’re truly toss-ups entering cycles. As we’re beginning to wade into the 2020 cycle here’s what the real indy number looks like. 

Based on the latest from the Pew Research Center, that number is setting up to be even lower this cycle. According to their findings...

  • 38% of voters ID as independent
  • Only 7% don’t have a party preference

So, there you have it... Now, 7% is a significant percentage when it comes to tight elections, but the bottom line is that more than nine in ten voters already know how they’re going to break without even knowing who the candidates are at this point. Really, the greatest chance for variance would be discouraged voters. If turnout is lower for a particular partisan group due to a lack of enthusiasm for a candidate or candidate(s), that could potentially have as big of an impact as how “independent” voters break next year.


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