How accurate is the Colorado State hurricane forecast? Here’s the answer
Bottom Line: Yesterday I broke out the AccuWeather Hurricane forecast accuracy and as it turned out – it was highly accurate in predicting the overall 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season. For most the CSU forecast, the original, is the first official hurricane forecast of the year. As for my interest, I simply care about accuracy regardless of where it comes from. Here’s the 2018 CSU forecast and actual outcomes
Last year their forecast predicted:
- 14 Tropical storms (actual 15)
- 7 hurricanes (actual 8)
- 3 major hurricanes (actual 2)
- Chance of US landfall for a major hurricane 63% (yes)
That’s highly accurate... It’s clear these forecasts have improved over the years which lends additional credibility to what they’re projecting for 2019. Here’s what CSU had to say.
- 13 Tropical storms
- 5 Hurricanes
- 2 Major hurricanes
- Chance of US landfall for a major hurricane 48%
- Chance for East coast including Florida 28%
Like the AccuWeather forecast everything is down a bit from a year ago. Perhaps most importantly, they’re suggesting for the first time in years that the odds are more unlikely than not that we’ll be spared a major hurricane. The historical average for a major hurricane striking the US is 52%.
While hurricane season doesn’t “officially” start until June it’s worth a reminder that for four consecutive years we’ve had our first named storms, and last year first landfall, in May.