Hurricane Season – Are storms worse or is it just our perception?
Bottom Line: The Weather Channel and Morning Consult just wrapped up some new weather-related polling and the results are clear. Most Americans do think weather events are getting worse. Many contend it’s the worst it’s ever been. So, what’s real and what’s politically motivated hype? As is generally the case, the truth lies in between.
One of the most frustrating aspects of attempting to discuss weather events and natural disasters is how it’s all become politicized. Once upon a time, not all that long ago, I would be able to discuss climate change related topics without it immediately conjuring political reactions. Unfortunately, once the politicos who’d been on the global warming track for a few decades moved over to adopt climate change as their preferred term – everything changed.
Climate change is real and always has been. The first answer to the question as to if weather events are worse than ever. We have an empirical and resounding answer. No. Not even close. Earth has had a minimum of three mass extinction events prior to our arrival on this planet. They’ve included ice ages and periods of extreme heat the likes of which we’ve never known. That’s also why it’s absurd to lay climate change exclusively or even predominantly at the feet of humans. It’s kind of like an atheist who says there isn’t God but can’t explain how any of this happened.
Anyway, back to severe weather and hurricanes. The answer, despite some recency bias to the contrary, is generally no. For perspective consider this... The first year we had any hurricane related info was 1850. There were seven documented hurricanes that year. Consider the lack of technology and ability to track what was in the Atlantic back then. Truth is many of the storms and hurricanes that never made landfall were probably never accounted for fully until the satellite age in the late 1960’s. Which takes us to the next point.
Much of the data that’s used to suggest that hurricane season has become worse over time is based on better technology and equipment. Starting with the satellite age in the late 1960’s, we began to track just about everything, just about everywhere. To give you an idea of what a difference satellite technology makes, consider that the year prior to full satellite tracking of the Atlantic hurricane season we had eight named storms and four hurricanes. The next year with satellite technology, 18 named storms and 12 hurricanes. Coincidence? Maybe, but doubtful. That 1969 year magically produced a record number of hurricanes with 12. In recent years that trend has continued to include better information to know the strength of storms in real-time anywhere in the Atlantic. That also can impact hurricane numbers. But here’s the thing. Despite the lack of sophistication of years gone by there still were years recorded to be more active than what we’ve experienced in recent years. These are all of the years with 10 or more recorded hurricanes:
- 1870, 1878, 1886, 1887, 1893
- 1916, 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998
- 2005, 2010, 2012, 2017
I’ll point out something you’re certain not to hear anywhere else. There were as many years with 10 or more recorded hurricanes (using 19th century technology) between 1870 and 1916 (6) and there have been over the past 48 years. There are two sides to stories and one side to facts. Hurricane season was demonstrably worse consistently, in the late 19th century,than it has been in the late 20th and early 21st century.