2020 Update - President Trump’s re-election odds & the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 58% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 45%)
- 60% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 46%)
President Trump remains the favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election. There are a couple of takeaways we can glean from the difference between the average of all polling compared to likely voters. President Trump’s average polling is currently slightly below average at this point in his presidency – though he remains the favorite to win reelection.
Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Joe Biden still leads in the polling among Democrats. Ironically, despite the hypothetical head-to head polling that’s meaningless at this stage in the cycle, he might represent the lowest opportunity for Democrats to recruit new voters in 2020 should he become the nominee.
The next big moment for the Democratic candidates is the third debate. And in advance of that debate an average of all polling suggests that Harris and Buttigieg have faded considerably and the race is consolidating around the top three candidates once again. In an average of recent polling here’s the breakout:
- Biden: 30%
- Warren: 17%
- Sanders: 16%
- Harris: 7%
- Buttigieg: 5%
The only other semi-interesting tidbit is that Andrew Yang has passed Spartacus & co. To pull into 6th in the race. The ten candidates debating next week are Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang.