Flu Season’s almost here & the flu shot’s still a shot in the dark

Flu Season’s almost here & the flu shot’s still a shot in the dark

Bottom Line: Fall officially starts on Monday, the 23rd, and only eight days later it’ll be October, the unofficial start of flu season. Already the pre-publicity has started about how horrible this year’s will be. Honestly, when was the last time you heard from media or the medical establishment that it wouldn’t be? That’s not to say it won’t be, I don’t know. Kind of like the scientists who put together the flu vaccine. They don’t really know if it’ll work either but that won’t stop every one of them from telling you that you should get the flu shot or die – because you could from flu.

It's always advisable to follow your doctor's recommendations. For many those recommendations include obtaining your flu vaccine. My annual frustration is that the hype regarding the flu season combined with the hype over getting the flu vaccine is never, aside from my annual reality checks, countered with facts about effectiveness. Like lemmings we’re just supposed to do what we’re told without ever being provided with facts to consider prior to being immunized. If you’re not familiar with my work, especially on this topic, know that I’m not an anti-vaxxer, I’m just a fact man. There are two sides to stories and one-side to facts. I establish facts before making decisions and formulating opinions. 

Here are the facts. The flu vaccine fails most people who get it most of the time. The reason is simple. The flu vaccine is configured most years in April/May and finalized in June. What commonly happens with viruses? They mutate! That's why no two flu vaccines are the same. By the time flu season rolls around there's often a better than not chance that the strain you'll come across has moved on from whatever form of evil the scientists were attempting to combat. 

The CDC has tracked the flu vaccine's effectiveness with its current methodology (adjusting for demographics) since 2004. Here's the scorecard. 

  • Most effective: 60% (2010) 
  • Least effective: 10% (2004) 
  • Average effectiveness: 40%

How was last year’s performance? Just 29% effective. Let’s hope for a weak flu season and record effectiveness for the flu vaccine. And even if the vaccine turns out to be as ineffective as last year’s you can certainty make the case that it’s worth getting,because a near 1 in 3 chance of working is better than nothing right? But whatever you decide you can now make an informed decision. 


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