2020 Update - President Trump’s re-election odds & the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 56% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 44%)
- 67% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 49%)
President Trump still remains the favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election through any historical prism. This election will always be more about President Trump than whomever the Democratic challenger happens to be. And no, he won’t be removed from office via impeachment. If he maintains this kind of support among likely voters into next year, he’d be a prohibitive favorite to win reelection.
President Trump’s average polling is currently slightly below average at this point in his presidency; however, he’s performing better than most of his predecessors among likely voters. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats.
Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Joe Biden still leads in the average of all polling among Democrats after the third debate, however there’s no question that Elisabeth Warren is the momentum candidate. Ironically, despite the hypothetical head-to head polling that’s meaningless at this stage in the cycle, he might represent the lowest opportunity for Democrats to recruit new voters in 2020 should he become the nominee.
Here’s the current average polling with the changes since last week.
- Biden: 28% (-1)
- Warren: 22% (+4)
- Sanders: 17% (flat)
- Buttigieg: 6% (flat)
- Harris: 5% (-1)
To give you an idea of how dramatically this race has shifted, in May Biden was averaging 41% to Warren’s 8%. What’s also unquantified in these numbers is whether the new focus on Cloudstrike and Joe Biden’s clear, admitted, intervention that led to Ukrainian interference benefiting the Ukrainian energy company Hunter Biden was earning $50k per month from matters to rank and file Democrats. The focus on this potential corruption coinciding with Elisabeth Warren’s momentum has the potential knock him off of his front-runner status.
No other candidates currently poll above 3%. We may see additional defections over the next week or so as reality begins to set in for more candidates.