President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race

President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race

Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?  

  • 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win 

That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.

  • 55% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 45%)
  • 71% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 50%)

President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.

Current average polling with the changes since last week. 

  • Biden: 29% (+2)
  • Warren: 21% (flat)
  • Sanders: 18% (+1)
  • Buttigieg: 7% (-1)
  • Harris: 4% (-1)

This week marked the end of the run for Beto. At one point in April he peaked at 10%, but his exit from the race won’t have near the impact. He was averaging under 2% as he closed out his campaign having burned through $14 million in the process. What is continuing to play out is Joe Biden’s rise since the prior debate. While Biden has mostly benefited from Warren losing support, he nevertheless has the widest lead in the race he’s had since September. Meanwhile Kamala Harris’s once promising campaign is increasingly looking like it could be on the verge of collapse. She took a big swing this week with a new education plan she hopes will galvanize some support. She needs something. Her current polling is the lowest it’s been at any point this year. No other candidates are polling above 3%. And now Bloomberg watch begins... Until next week.

 

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