President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 52% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 44%)
- 63% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since last week.
- Biden: 26% (-3)
- Warren: 21% (flat)
- Sanders: 18% (+1)
- Buttigieg: 8% (+1)
- Harris: 5% (+1)
Is Bloomberg in or out? Deval Patrick is in. What does any of this say about the perceived strength of the field at this stage of the game? There’s an argument to be made, and frankly I don’t even think there’s anything to argue, that Joe Biden was the biggest loser in Wednesday’s impeachment hearings. Without getting into more detail, it’s crystal clear that the Democrat’s key witnesses knew Burisma was corrupt and remained corrupt while Hunter Biden was on the board. It was also crystal clear that Hunter doesn’t sit on the board of Burisma if his dad wasn’t actively involved in Ukrainian policy at the same time this was taking place. But in the meantime, while we wait to see what, if any impact in the race all of that will bring, here we are...
It wasn’t a good week for Biden regardless as he lost support to Sanders, Buttigieg and Harris. At this point in the cycle as we’re just a month and a half out from 2020, you’d expect to begin to see the front-runners solidify that status, rather than having second and third tier candidates get a second or third look from would be voters. There’s no way to spin that storyline. It is potentially the best possible news to Buttigieg and especially Harris – who's campaign is close to being on life support. Until next week.