Q&A of the Day – Florida’s voter ballots – Governor DeSantis’s role in Democrats suing – Part 2
Bottom Line: To the extent there’s research on the impact of being first, it does appear there’s a benefit. The first study done on the topic was conducted in 1975 by the University of Texas at Arlington. The study found that candidates listed first were more likely to be voted for unless voters were highly familiar with the candidates. That makes sense. In reality, it speaks to more of an advantage in non-partisan races, which actually doesn’t apply to Florida’s law which impacts the listing of partisan races. Next up was a study by Yale and Boston College in 2004 which considered elections in New York in which candidates were listed differently based on precinct. In 71 of 79 precincts, or 90% of the time, candidates fared best when listed higher on ballots. Nine percent of the time the difference in margin was enough to potentially alter the outcome of the election. So, it seems like there’s something to it.
Most recently, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics in 2014, found that being listed first yields some type of benefit generally. Quoting him: In some elections a first-listing produces just a handful of votes, though they can make the difference in an extremely close election. In other elections a first-listing can generate extra votes up to about 5% of the overall tally, according to some studies.
The low end of that equation comes down to partisan races, the high end – up to 5% pertains to non-partisan races. Regardless, all related studies do suggest being first is an advantage. This takes us back to where we started. I understand the logic of saying there’s an advantage being listed first. My issue with the legal decision by Judge Mark Walker in striking down Florida’s law is the premise of his ruling. Someone will always be first, it’s unavoidable unless every race were a write-in only race. So, in essence, he provided a legal judgement that’s not possible to satisfy with any ballot construction. This is why I feel the DeSantis administration will win the appeal.