President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Presidential race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day.A Presidential reelection bid is first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent President. History has shown that if people are generally satisfied with the performance of the President – they'll vote to stay with him. That necessarily makes the relevance of the challenger a secondary consideration. In this story I've taken the historical approval ratings of incumbent Presidents running for reelection and tracked the outcomes of those elections. In so doing I’m able to project historical reelection odds for President Trump based on his current ratings. After a greater than two-month hiatus for this weekly update due to the pandemic...
Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 48% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 45%)
- 63% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)
Throughout the course of President Trump’s administration, he’s consistently performed best with likely voters. This remains the case as we’re now under six months away from Election Day. Based on all current approval polling the presidential race is essentially a 50-50 proposition. If we focus in on only likely voters, we see the dynamic meaningfully improve for President Trump as he’s currently as solid favorite to win. This is consistent with my state-by-state analysis earlier this week. With the Democrat’s race theoretically over with Joe Biden being the presumptive nominee, the die has potentially been cast in a way that could prove costly to Democrats in November. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who could most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Of the top five performing Democrats contending for President, Joe Biden consistently appealed to the fewest new voters. In other words, wild-card candidates such as Sanders,Buttigieg or Warren appeared to have had the best opportunity to convert the average non-voter into a potential voter. Once you dig beneath the surface, Biden’s nomination would appear to play into President Trump’s best hand.
We’re in an election year unlike any other in the mist of the pandemic, there’s no telling what might happen during the final six months of this race but for now, based on all available data and historical context, President Trump is the clear current favorite to win reelection. To be continued...