President Trump’s reelection odds & the state of the Presidential race
Bottom Line: Coming into the Presidential Election cycle the odds were on the side of Donald Trump winning reelection. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for reelection win
There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. A Presidential reelection bid is first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent President. History has shown that if people are generally satisfied with the performance of the President – they'll vote to stay with him. That necessarily makes the relevance of the challenger a secondary consideration. In this story I've taken the historical approval ratings of incumbent presidents running for reelection and tracked the outcomes of those elections. In so doing I’m able to project historical reelection odds for President Trump based on his current ratings.
Here’s where we stand as of today:
- 40% based on a 44% average approval rating across all samples
- 48% based on a 46% average approval rating with likely voters
A lot has happened over the past week. Both political conventions, civil unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin and a category four hurricane. And those are just the biggest events. This week’s polling represents a couple of interesting trends. President Trump’s overall approval rating across all adults rose over a week ago. It’s still lower than among likely voters, but his odds of winning reelection rose by about 10% when you don’t adjust for the sample of the adults polled on his performance. Conversely, President Trump’s rating among likely voters, though still his strength, dropped a bit this week. As a result, his odds of reelection dropped just below 50%. A key number to watch, as we advance towards Election Day is 47%. Most incumbent Presidents with at least a 47% approval rating win reelection. President Trump sits just below that level currently. This gives us two takeaways this week. One for each candidate.
For Biden: Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, the opportunity for Democrats is to convert more adults who currently aren’t likely to vote into voters this November.
For Trump: Solidify support among likely voters while understanding the core issues of these voters. The current polling doesn’t reflect the impact of the Republican National Convention and his real-time support might be higher than is most recently is reflected in this data – however we’re at a point in his administration in which he needs to ensure his support among those most engaged isn’t wavering.
To be continued...