Presidential Election Top Takeaways – November 4th
- The pollsters were woefully wrong both on a state by state and national level (again). Pollster Frank Luntz recently said if President Trump wins the election the polling industry is dead. The polling was so poor generally, regardless of ends up winning the election – RIP polling industry. Once again, my Anatomy of a Swing State analysis – adjusting for the flaws in their polls along with other historical factors will prove to be far more accurate.
- Joe Biden will win the national popular vote. Should Donald Trump pull out an Electoral College victory, he’ll be the first President to win twice having lost the National Popular vote in both elections. Should that come to pass, you can imagine the drumbeat on the left to abolish the Electoral College will grow.
- Split control of Congress. As I outlined in my final Who will Control Congress story story?, split control of congress was always the most likely outcome. It appears that will be the case with Republicans retaining control of the Senate and Democrats retaining control of the House.
- Patience. It’s possible we have clarity in the Presidential race today. It’s most likely we won’t have absolute clarity prior to Friday.
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