The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – September 6th
Bottom Line: It’s now been two weeks since the first Republican Primary Presidential Debate which provides an opportunity to see what the impact of it on this race happens to be. The answer...not much. While there was immediately a little bit of movement in the GOP field of candidates following the first debate, it doesn’t appear as though even those small changes held after the passing of another week. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates in the face of four looming criminal cases which he faces heading into next year’s presidential election year.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls which also factor into which candidates will be eligible to participate in the 2nd debate September 27th (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 53% (flat)
- DeSantis: 15% (+1)
- Ramaswamy: 7% (-1)
- Haley: 6% (flat)
- Pence: 5% (flat)
- Christie: 3% (-1)
- Scott: 2% (flat)
All other candidates are polling under 1%. Two weeks removed from the first Republican Presidential debate, the only candidates which have improved their standing in the race are Nikki Haley and Mike Pence (DeSantis is back to where he was heading into the first debate)...and with both only polling in the mid-single digits, that’s not saying much. All signs continue to point towards a race in which Trump would benefit from numerous candidates being in the race, splitting the non-Trump vote. At the same time, it doesn’t appear as though there’s any movement towards a consensus Trump alternative candidate by the electorate. Notably, Trump remains below 50% in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina (while still holding large leads in those three states in the currently crowded field). This suggests the possibility that a non-Trump candidate may have the potential to win those states.
As of today, two of the participants in the first debate have yet to meet the requirements to participate in the next debate – Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson. Until next week...