The Republican Presidential Primary Race – January 10th, 2024
Bottom Line: Election Day is under ten months away with the first contest of the primary season less than a week away. The Iowa Caucus officially kicks off the election season next Monday. As we’re closing in on the first votes of the 2024 election cycle, we’re doing so with an added bit of drama in multiple states. The decision by the Colorado Supreme Court to strike Donald Trump’s name from the state’s primary ballot citing the insurrection clause in the constitution has been taken up by the United States Supreme Court. The Colorado decision led to Maine’s Secretary of State removing Trump from the ballot in that state. However, pending the appeal of both the Colorado Supreme Court ruling and Maine’s removal of Donald Trump from primary ballots, those decisions have been stayed and Trump is currently set to appear on all 50 state ballots. Speaking of legal matters involving Trump...his appeal to the D.C Court of Appeals, asserting presidential immunity for crimes he’s alleged to have committed was heard on Tuesday. As for the state of the race...
Former President Donald Trump’s polling lead was 39-points over his closest competition (Ron DeSantis) before the first debate, it’s currently 52-points, a high for him in this cycle. It's clear that Trump’s decision to skip the debates worked out perfectly fine for him. Only one non-Trump candidate is polling higher than they were prior to the first debate is Nikki Haley who has been rising in early primary states. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls:
- Trump: 63%
- DeSantis: 11%
- Haley: 11%
- Ramaswamy: 4%
- Christie: 3%
- Hutchinson: 1%
Trump’s lead nationally isn’t just dominate; he’s peaking at the right time with his largest lead of the cycle heading into the Iowa Caucus. Meanwhile, in the race to be the top non-Trump candidate, Nikki Haley is also peaking and has now caught DeSantis leading to what appears to be a dead heat between the two of them nationally.
National polls serve as temperature checks, however it’s what happens in individual states that determine the winner. On that note, Trump enjoys a current polling lead of 36-points over Haley in Iowa, 14-points over Haley in New Hampshire, 30-points over Haley in South Carolina and 59-points over DeSantis in Nevada. Notably, Trump has a larger polling lead, by a wide margin, than any that’s been overcome by a candidate who’s gone on to win a party’s nomination.