The Anatomy of a Swing State – The Biden vs. Trump Rematch – May 1st
Bottom Line: With both major party nominations for President wrapped up and an apparent 2020 presidential rematch ahead of us it’s time for the seven installment the Anatomy of a Swing State series. In this series I analyze traditional swing states which will likely prove pivotal in determining the presidential outcome in November. This cycle we’ll have a rematch for the first time since 1956 and the seventh time overall. History has generally proved favorable for the challenger in presidential rematches. The loser in the first election matchup has won the rematch on four occasions with incumbent president winning out just twice. Due to the rematch, let’s first start with an overview of where the candidates stand today compared to Election Day 2020 using the RealClear Politics polling average nationally.
- Election Day 2020: Biden +7.2%
- April 30th, 2024: Trump +1.4%
What we currently see is an 8.6% shift to the advantage of Donald Trump. This type of swing in the electorate would clearly have a profound impact on the election outcome if it were to be held on Election Day. These are the states that Joe Biden won by 9-points or less in 2020:
- Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Those are currently the key swing states to watch in this cycle. The expectation would be that Trump would be able to retain the states he won four years ago with the question being whether he’d be able to flip enough swing states back his way from President Biden to win the election. We’ve seen a somewhat significant shift in sentiment over the past week with former President Trump posting his largest advantage in five weeks. The timing coincides with the start of the New York state trial against the former president.
The recent improvement by the former president has also moved another state potentially back into play for him- Maine.
As of today, the RealClear average of state polls shows...
- Biden retaining: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire
- Trump flipping: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
There’s another big change to the benefit of Donald Trump in the state-by-state breakdown as Pennsylvania, which has been in Biden’s column over the prior four weeks has swung back into Trump’s direction this week. As of today, Trump is shown in the lead with a 312 to 226 vote advantage in the Electoral College. No doubt a lot will change between today and Election Day in November, however the former and perhaps future President of the United States is currently the best positioned to win.