Closing Time in Trump’s New York Criminal Case - Top 3 Takeaways – May 28th, 2024
- Closing time. Semisonic’s late 90’s ballad became an anthem for many across segments of our society. It naturally became the song played by bars during last calls and similarly with other entertainment establishments as it was time for all remaining to go. Fun fact. Many are only familiar with Semisonic due to the success of Closing Time and as such many describe the band as a one-hit wonder. However, the band had previously had some success in the post-grunge rock era, enough that Closing Time was a song on the band’s second album. It was written due to the band having grown bored with wrapping up their sets on tour with the song If I Run. They thought it would be fun to write a song to use for closing time that was about closing time. During the song’s creative process, the band’s lead member was about to become a father and incorporated elements of a baby being born into the song. That accounts for the song’s opening line: Closing time, open all the doors and let you out into the world, in the second verse this line: Closing time, time for you to go out to the places you will be from and the song’s final line. Closing time, every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end. If you’d ever been confused about the song’s seemingly odd messaging around lyrics that otherwise describe last call at a bar now you know. Anyway, the reason why my top takeaway today is about Closing Time isn’t due to a weird random desire to discuss Semisonic’s hit with you. It’s because it’s closing time in Trump’s New York state case. After somewhat inexplicably making the un-sequestered jury wait for over a week between evidence having been presented in the case and closing arguments being made in the case today’s the day closing arguments will be made. But while much will be made about the closing arguments as they’re made by the prosecution and defense in this case, it could be that the jury instructions become key as to if there will be an acquittal, a conviction, or perhaps a hung jury in this case. According to USA Today Suffolk Polling at the onset of this case...
- 65% of Americans thought that Donald Trump would be found guilty. Much of that thought process was predicated on where the trial was being held. But as it’s now closing time in this case views among those who’ve paid attention (which isn’t many according to the polls – the Yahoo/YouGov poll last week said only 16% have paid a lot of attention to this case) have shifted in Trump’s favor. As I mentioned last week... Prior to the start of Trump’s trial most Americans already viewed the case (and broadly the criminal cases pending against him) skeptically. For example, Quinnipiac found 62% of Americans viewed the criminal cases being brought against the former and perhaps future President of the United States as being politically motivated. How about now? Let’s just say it appears as though this country is as skeptical as ever. Yesterday Sinclair’s polling on the question Do you believe the criminal investigations into Donald Trump are politically motivated? resulted in 74% of respondents saying yes. We appear to have gone from just under two-thirds of the country believing that Trump was being unfairly targeted in these criminal cases prior to the start of the Trump trial to nearly three-quarters of Americans thinking that’s now the case. This is also being reflected in the betting markets. On April 15th when jury selection began in this case, the line in the betting markets showed Biden and Trump exactly even for those betting on who would be the next President of the United States. As it’s now, that’s not the case at all. Donald Trump is now being shown not only as the odds-on favorite to be the next president, but he also...
- Has the highest odds he’s had at any point in this cycle. Trump is currently priced with a 51% chance of winning this year’s presidential election compared to only 36% for Joe Biden. That’s a fifteen-point swing in Trump’s direction since the onset of this case began. It’s a bit of an oversimplification to suggest that the entire swing in the betting markets is attributable to perceptions of Trump’s New York trial, however there’s no doubt that it’s the biggest driving factor given the dramatic swing in a relatively short period of time. But while we wait and watch what will happen as Trump’s New York state criminal case ends today, a key as to what happens potentially will be with what Judge Merchan’s jury instructions are in this case. Trump attorney Alina Habba told Fox Business on Sunday: This judge (2020 Biden campaign donor Juan Merchan) is the judge that determines the jury instructions. The jury instructions are the roadmap for non-attorneys and jurors to follow the law. It's going to be critical and frankly, at this point, I have zero confidence in the fact that this person, who should not be sitting on the bench right now, will do the right thing and give jury instructions that are in an appropriate manner without any persuasion towards the prosecution. So, while all interested eyes will be closely parsing the closing arguments, which don’t count as evidence to be considered in the case, legal observers will most closely be watching what the judge issues as instructions in this case. Those aren’t expected to come until tomorrow morning. It’s closing time in this case, but the closing arguments might not be the most important closing elements of this case. Only the jurors know how they currently feel about the facts as presented in the case and what they intend to do with them. Only Judge Merchan currently knows what his jury instructions will be and how heavy of a thumb he chooses to place in presenting the laws in play in this case.