Q&A of the Day – Where Have All of Florida’s Democrats Gone?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
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Today’s Entry: What accounts for the massive drop-off in Dem registrations? Simply death of the registered?
Bottom Line: Today’s question is a follow-up question to Tuesday’s Q&A – How Policy & Politicians Shaped Florida’s Republican Voter Advantage. In Tuesday’s Q&A I illustrated that the peak of the Democrat party’s dominance in Florida occurred in 1978 with an advantage of 1.63 million voters and that progressively ever since – with the exception of the first decade of the 2000’s Republicans have gained ground (resulting in a commanding voter registration advantage of over 892,000 registered voters most recently). But to the point of today’s question, it’s not just that Republican voter registrations have surged beyond that of Democrats in recent years, it’s that there are actually fewer Democrats in Florida in recent years. That’s especially notable given that Florida’s total population has risen by the second highest number of people of any state over the past decade. It’s not just that there are fewer registered Democrats in Florida. It’s that there are fewer registered Democrats in Florida during a period of rapid population growth for the state. So, what’s behind this and just how many fewer Democrats are there in Florida in recent years?
While the peak Democrat voter registration advantage happened in 1978, the peak number of registered Democrats happened much more recently – it was 2020. At the end of the 2020 election cycle there were a total of 5.32 million registered Democrats in Florida. That compared to 5.22 million registered Republicans at the time. So where are we today? As of the most recent update from the state – which reflects Florida’s voter registration information as of March 31st, there are 5.24 million registered Republican voters, a total that’s about 25,000 voters higher than in 2020. Meanwhile, Democrats have 4.35 million registered voters a total that’s about a whooping 965-thousand fewer voters!
Today’s question and the underlying voter registration facts illustrate a dynamic that might be a bit different than perceptions about the new era of Republican dominance. The perception by many is that the total numbers of Republicans have surged past Democrats in Florida. In reality, Republicans have marginally added to their voter registration totals while Democrats have been in an absolute free fall. That might lead some to wonder if that means that most of the defected Democrats reregistered as NPAs. The answer is no. The total number of registered NPAs/Minor Party voters is also lower today than in 2020. So how could it be that Florida’s population has been surging but Florida’s voter registrations have actually declined in recent years overall? There are several contributing factors.
Studies have shown that a state’s or even a community’s political makeup is a bigger motivating factor for relocations than ever before. Just as many Republicans have relocated to Florida since the pandemic, many Democrats have left the state for similar reasons. Many Democrats have in fact died. Florida is second in the nation in average annual deaths with about 211 thousand per year. There is an indication that registered Democrats have somewhat disproportionately accounted for more of them. But the biggest factor of all is the result of Florida’s election integrity laws in recent years.
Florida’s current Election laws call for the regular reconciling of voter rolls. This is a process that takes place at the county and state level monthly. The reconciliation process accounts for those who’ve moved, died or have been convicted of a felony. For those removed this way they’re categorized as “Removed-Active”. Over the prior 4+ years there have been a total of 1.12 million voters removed from voter rolls this way. A total that’s significantly higher than any other four-year window previously. The cleaning up of voter rolls in recent years appears to account for much of the disparity in population changes relative to voter registration changes. In many parts of the state, it seems there had been many people who’d not been eligible voters in many years that were still listed as active registered voters. The jurisdictions with the most voter roll revisions due to this process were disproportionately in Democrat majority counties. And there was another key change as well.
Under Florida’s recent election law there are also those who are now determined to be “inactive voters” within the state. Under the law here’s the definition of an inactive voter:
- An inactive voter is someone for whom undeliverable mail triggered an address confirmation final notice to which the voter did not respond within 30 days or which came back undeliverable. When that happens, the voter is designated as inactive. If after two (federal) general elections, the inactive voter fails to vote, change/update his or her voter registration record, or request a vote-by-mail ballot, the inactive voter is removed no later than the end of the calendar year.
Over the prior 4+ years there are approximately 754-thousand voters that have been determined to be “inactive” which have largely been registered Democrat voters. It’s mostly been through the cleaning up of voter rolls that’s to account for where most of the formerly registered Democrats in Florida have gone.