President Biden’s Reelection Odds – July 16th, 2024
Bottom Line: Coming into any Presidential Election cycle with an incumbent seeking reelection, the odds favor the existing president. President Trump became just the tenth to lose a reelection bid (if you include Gerald Ford who was the incumbent president defeated by Jimmy Carter in the 1976 Presidential Election after having taken over for Richard Nixon). Meanwhile, 21 incumbents who’ve run for reelection have won.
What that means is...
- 67% of Presidents who’ve run for reelection won
There is a clear incumbency advantage. A presidential reelection bid is first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent president. History has shown that if people are generally satisfied with the performance of the president – they'll vote to stay with him. That necessarily makes the relevance of the challenger a secondary consideration. In this breakout I've taken the historical approval ratings of incumbent presidents running for reelection tracking the outcomes of those elections. Notably, in my final update preceding the 2020 Presidential election, President Trump’s reelection odds were shown to be just 32%. This method once again proved to generally be predictive of the actual outcome.
My previous update to this story was in early June. President Biden’s reelection odds stood at 20% as of that update. Here’s where President Biden’s reelection odds stand as of today with five months to go before Election Day:
- 17% based on an average 40% approval rating (the lowest of this cycle)
President Biden’s current approval rating is two points lower than President Trump’s on the same date, seven points lower than President Obama’s and seven points lower than President George W. Bush’s. What we see, as we’re under four months away from Election Day, is President Biden not only underperforming the historical norms for an incumbent at this point in his presidency, but also historically low performance. Congruently, former President Donald Trump is showing a head-to-head advantage in a rematch against President Biden.
In Florida, President Biden’s approval rating stands at just 34%, indicating that Donald Trump is currently a prohibitive favorite to win our state.