Primary Election Day in Florida, The Money Race & A False Start at the DNC – Top 3 Takeaways – August 20th, 2024
- It’s Primary Election Day. Polls are open from 7 until 7 across Florida today as Floridians are set to vote in elections that will go a long way towards shaping our state over the next couple of years – and potentially for as many as six with a senate race on our ballots this year. This is the first Primary Election Day, in a presidential election year, with Republicans holding a voter registration advantage in Florida’s history. One of the biggest questions is whether they’ll begin to take advantage of it. The early indications suggest that they will. Republicans currently enjoy a 7.4% advantage by way of voter registration over Democrats. Through early voting, which Republicans had a big advantage in, and with all mailed in ballots accounted for, where Democrats had the edge, voter turnout is currently 7.4% higher for Republicans heading into Election Day – which historically has been a Republican strength. If that holds true it could be a big day for GOP priorities that will be decided on today’s ballots, a la school board races in select districts, judicial races and potentially more moderate Democrats winning races without Republican competition this year. It could also be a key indication as to whether there’s an enthusiasm gap with one party or another heading into November’s Election Day which is now only 11 weeks away. Voter turnout entering today stands at just over 14% of Florida’s registered voters. As I’ll breakdown in today’s Q&A, turnout in the low 20% range or below is likely good news for Democrats today and heading into November. Turnout that’s near 24% or higher is probably a solid Republican indicator using history as a guide. It’s important to note that all Floridians who’re registered to vote, regardless of party, have races to vote for and elections that will be decided today. There is already one political race that’s been won in advance of today’s primary Election Day...
- The money race. Money is far from being everything in politics, but it has been historically predictive. What percentage of political candidates that have raised the most money go on to win their race? The answer is an average of 90%. There are always outliers of course, the 10%. Take Donald Trump in 2016 for example. Hillary Clinton, and her related PACs raised a total of $337 million more than Trump in her loss. However, Joe Biden’s $536 million advantage in 2020 managed to outdo Trump’s incumbency advantage that year. If you’ve ever wondered why so many in media, make a big deal out of money that’s why. Those with the most money, nine times out of ten, win elections. And in Florida, the Republican Party is most certainly winning the money race. Friday was a filing deadline for the state political parties to report on their financial performance. How has it gone for Florida’s Democrats as they once again talk about flipping Florida blue? Not so well. The Republican Party of Florida has out fundraised the Florida Democratic Party by a margin of 7 to 1. That’s not a mistake. For every dollar the state’s Democrat Party that’s led by Nikki Fried, who has a proclivity for weed, brings in, the Republicans have brought in seven. This suggests that at least to the extent that Democrats feel that they have momentum across the country since they dumped Dementia Joe in favor of Kamala Harris, it hasn’t seemingly translated into increased confidence that Democrats will perform well in Florida’s elections this year. Either that or Nikki Fried is just incredibly awful at her job (which is possible), or both. In any event, if having the most campaign cash results in wins 90% of the time and if Florida’s Republicans are out fundraising Democrats 86% of the time that would seem to be a recipe for significant electoral success for GOP candidates statewide in November. Speaking of weak Democrat Party leadership...
- A false start. In football it’ll cost you five yards on offense. At the DNC it’s perhaps a sign of a somewhat dysfunctional party. Monday’s kickoff of to the DNC was designed around Joe Biden’s day. A day where the party would pay tribute to the current president’s political career and have him speak before kicking him to curb (with three days to go to build up the person the party’s establishment dumped him for). Instead, the official DNC Party platform made 19 references to a second Biden term. This includes references like... In President Biden’s second term he will...(insert topic here) and notably the platform boldly states “President Biden, Vice President Harris and Democrats are running to finish the job”. Well, Joe’s been a no-go for over four weeks. Kamala has been the Democrat’s presumptive nominee for over four weeks, and she’s officially been the party’s nominee for over a week. It appears that someone failed to communicate this to the leaders of the DNC. The Democrat Party literally voted to approve a platform built around Joe Biden’s second term as president. If that’s what the party’s best and brightest managed to produce at the national level, it’s no wonder we see what we see at the state and local level. And speaking of day one at the DNC. It featured a tribute to Joe and his 50+ years of political glory. On the one hand you feel bad for him because you feel he’s been a victim of elder abuse by those around him leaving him with the daily responsibility of running the United States. But, on the other hand, it’s almost impossible not to resent him because of what he’s done to try to run our country into the ground for the benefit of woke politics and illegal immigrants. In any event, it was a false start at the DNC, which seems fitting.