The Anatomy of a Swing State – Harris vs. Trump – August 21st
Bottom Line: We’re now under 12 weeks away from Election Day and we have three full weeks of swing state polling between Harris and Trump to gain a better understanding of what the new swing state landscape is as the dynamics of this race have come together.
We’ll start with an overview of where Trump stands today in polling against Harris compared to where he stood on Election Day 2020 against Biden using the RealClear Politics polling average nationally.
- Election Day 2020: Biden +7.2%
- August 21st, 2024: Harris +1.5%, Harris + 1.5% in a 5-way matchup
Momentum has squarely been on the side of Kamala Harris since she entered the race. Her lead, though still small, expanded yet again this week. Still, despite Harris’ recent gains against the former president, Trump is continuing to run well above where he was against Joe Biden four years ago or Hillary Clinton eight years ago.
What we currently see is an 5.7% shift to the advantage of Donald Trump over Election Day 2020. This type of swing in the electorate would clearly have a profound impact on the election outcome if it were to be held by Election Day.
These are the states that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won by 5.7% or less in 2020:
- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Those are currently the key swing states to watch as of this week. The expectation would be that Trump would be able to retain the states he won four years ago with the question being whether he’d be able to flip enough swing states back his way to win the election.
Since Harris’ assent to the top-of-the ticket Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia have moved from potential swing state status back into likely states for Democrats prior to this week’s changes. With each of those changes the path to victory expands for Kamala Harris as it narrows for Donald Trump.
As of today, the RealClear average of state polls shows...
- Harris retaining: Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin
- Trump flipping: Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania
The big change this week is that Harris is now potentially positioned to win Arizona. This comes just a week after Wisconsin, which had also consistently been in the Trump column for months, moved into Harris’ column and also follows Harris gaining an edge in Michigan two weeks ago. Trump is currently shown with a 276 to 262 vote advantage in the Electoral College which is his lowest advantage since the onset of the series this year. No doubt a lot will change between today and Election Day in November, however the former and perhaps future President of the United States is currently the best positioned to win.