New research showed how many voters in November were "late-breaking" deciders in swing-states including Florida:
Bottom Line: Polling companies and related researchers are still trying to figure out what happened last November (insert joke here). As a result the American Association for Public Opinion Research has been working on finding an answer. Their findings were that they believe more voters than usual were "late-breakers" and that swing-state polling often included sampling that underrepresented Trump support as many would be Trump voters wouldn't answer that way to pollsters. Here's what I know by looking into some of their research...They still don't get it. Why?
Among the findings they cited that key swing states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin - 13% of voters were late breakers. I know that to be bunk. At the absolute peak of the general election uncertainty my research never included more than 12% of voters who were truly ever undecided - let alone late breaking undecided voters. Instead we continue to see that the pollsters and related researchers still don't get it. As I've indicated many times over - the polls weren't wrong. You just have to know how to use them.
The polls were the basis (first of three steps) to accurately determine the outcome of the popular vote and electoral college outcome (plus all of the other races I tracked nationally and locally). The key is to find how undecided voters and third party voters really will break in a given state in a like election cycle. That requires a great deal of research, skill and perspective.