How many people really changed political parties over the past year? Now we know:
Bottom Line: We're all aware that the 2016 cycle was unlike any other we've ever experienced. We also know that President Trump isn't a conventional President either (which is why he won the nomination and eventually the Presidency - lest someone attempt to infer an inherent negative in that statement.). The Pew Research Center has tracked the political migration of people from both political leanings and found the following:
Over the past year and a half about 10% of Americans have switched political leanings and we're right back to where we were. How does that make sense?
According to Pew's findings about 11% of voters who leaned towards Republicans in the fall of 2015 lean towards Democrats today. Meanwhile, about 10% of those who leaned towards Democrats in the fall of 2015 now lean in the direction of the GOP. So the net result is that Democrats have fared about 1% better over the past year and a half, in terms of the political leanings of voters generally, but it's mostly ironic interchanging of both parties' least committed voters with one another. This would be the political example of the more things change the more they stay the same. When you extract Pew's findings and apply them to the 2016 vote totals here's what you find:
28.7 million voters have changed political leanings but the net result has only impacted about one million voters nationally.