Top Three Takeaways – December 3rd
- 31...If you’re paying close attention to outstanding Congressional races across the country and/or recounted races for state legislatures – you've probably noticed many close elections have been certified across the country this week. While Florida completed this process two weeks ago, we’re among the first states to do so. As a result, we now have a complete picture of what happened on Election Day beyond our contested Presidential election. That’s where the number 31 comes into play. While current Presidential election results show 25 states having broken for Biden and 25 for Trump, Republicans will control the state legislature in 31 states come January. That’s an increase of three state houses for Republicans in a Presidential election theoretically won by a Democrat. Anyway, while Republicans in Florida objectively had their best election cycle in our state’s history – the trend didn’t stop at the Florida – Georgia line. Speaking of which, Georgia – which in theory narrowly broke for Biden, was one of the six states to vote for Biden but broke for Republican control of their state legislature. Incidentally, that bodes well in context for what Georgians may do January 5th in the two most important runoff elections in US Senate history.
- 9...That’s the minimum number of pickups in the House of Representatives Republicans will see come January’s new Congress. While there are still a couple of elections unsettled, it’s clear Republicans significantly outperformed in Congressional races nationally. Not only did Republicans outperform in the Senate by losing only one net seat. They flipped the number nine on its head. Nine happens to be the average gain expected for Democrats by the national pollsters and thus projected by most news organizations. That’s no small miss and of course two of the biggest “surprises” occurred in South Florida’s 26th and 27th districts. An aggregate of projections showed the 27th rated as “likely DEM” and the 26th as “leans DEM”.
- 3 to 1...According to the American Legislative Exchange Council that’s how much Democrats outspent Republicans this cycle. Literally three dollars for Democrats for every one spent on behalf of a Republican. And for all that spending Democrats will have control of only 18 state houses in January, they lost seats in Congress and incidentally spent more money in Florida than any other state. The record amount of spending by Democrats in Florida led to Republicans posting their best election on record. There’s a story to be told here and elsewhere. For all the other frustrations you may have, if you’re a supporter of President Trump, you can take solace in Florida’s results and the fact that when it came to the governments closest to them...most Americans are still more conservative than not. Also, elections couldn’t be bought – especially in Florida.
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