The Brian Mudd Show

The Brian Mudd Show

There are two sides to stories and one side to facts. That's Brian's mantra and what drives him to get beyond the headlines.Full Bio

 

Q&A – How Floridians Feel Entering 2022

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Q&A – How Floridians Feel Entering 2022

Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.

Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com

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Today’s entry: Brian – loved hearing your state-by-state analysis regarding Biden’s poor approval and performance on Mark Levin’s show. When you’re back in the saddle locally I’d love to hear you break down where Florida stands entering the new year with the midterm elections around the corner. Also, historically, what’s a key presidential approval number which indicates whether an election is set to be a wave election? Thanks, looking forward to having you back!

Bottom Line: It’s great to be back after the biggest break I’ve had during my career. Huge thanks to all who stepped up in my absence over the past 3+ weeks! As you noted, the only radio I’ve done over the previous 3 weeks was guest hosting for Mark Levin. In those broadcasts, I focused on three themes: Biden’s historically poor first year performance as president, the generational opportunity for conservatives/republicans to reach young voters, and election integrity. I’ve received hundreds of notes from listeners wanting to hear more on those themes. It’s completely understandable that after a brutal 2021, in which most Americans (58%) said it was one of the worst years in history, we’re ready for something to feel good about. Not to make light of anyone’s misery over the past year, but I found myself cracking up when thinking about where we were a year ago and where we are now.

If you happened to be listening a year ago, you might recall my throwing cold water on the notion that 2021 would be better. Yeah, we were entering the year with Covid vaccines, but we were trading Trump for Biden and a divided Congress for one controlled by Democrats. What about that suggested we were in for a sweet ride? Elections have consequences and the country was set to pay the price. And when I say pay the price, that of course came literally as well. So yeah, this side of the vaccines, all signs pointed towards things getting worse which is what I cautioned about at the time. That said, with low expectations, I still managed to underestimate the sheer incompetence of Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats running the show. It took Jimmy Carter and Congressional Democrats 3+ years to stink it up as bad as the current cast of characters did in under a year. The quintessential summation of the Biden administration's failures is found in this quote when he came into office: I'll put in place a plan to deal with this pandemic responsibly, I've already done it. I'm not going to shut down the country, I'm not going to shut down the economy, but I'm going to shut down the virus. As we’ve entered 2022 with far more Covid cases than at any point prior in the pandemic, the worst inflation in forty years and supply chain hell – that’s about par for the course for Biden’s overall effectiveness based on his own standards – let alone ours. And in the, but wait, there's more category... today happens to be the day that the federal vaccine mandate could lead to millions of Americans getting fired as the Supreme Court won’t take up the case until Friday. All of this is to say that 2022’s yet another year in which we’ll have to pay for 2020’s elections, literally and figuratively, but one in which we’ll be empowered to vote for positive change. So, about that and Florida specifically...

Florida’s Democrats enter 2021 in the worst position they’ve ever been in. This is on back of a one-two-three punch of Republicans holding a voter registration advantage over Democrats for the first time in history, a lead which only grew into year end, only 23% of Americans approving of Congress and Joe Biden’s approval rating reaching a paltry 36% in Florida - matching his national approval rating. Biden enters the year at his lowest rating yet as we kick off the midterm cycle. For sake of comparison Trump’s approval rating on this same date was 46% in Florida and 42% nationally – in route to what turned out to be a wave election for Democrats - with the exception of Florida. This is instructive in multiple respects for gauging the political view of the possible this year. 2018 saw President Trump being viewed much more highly in Florida than the country, in a cycle in which Florida’s Republicans significantly outperformed the country as whole. Currently, Floridian's view President Biden just as negatively as the country does overall. This suggests that after two cycles of Florida being a political outlier, we may once again become the barometer of the country. Should that hold, its especially bad news for Democrats in Florida and across the country.

With President Biden’s approval rating 10-points worse than Donald Trump’s in Florida entering the midterm election year, and with Republicans holding their first ever voter registration lead in Florida’s history – this year is shaping up to be historic. All current data in Florida suggests this election cycle is setting up to be the best for Republicans in Florida’s history...and by a lot. But it’s not just here. With President Biden’s approval rating six points lower nationally than President Trump’s on this date, it’s also setting up to be a historic year for Republicans nationally. You asked what level of approval rating by a president would indicate a wave election. Anything below 45%.

Historically the President’s party is at a nine-point disadvantage if they also control Congress heading into the midterms. That’s before you factor the president’s approval rating into the mix. Any approval rating below 45% adds to the advantage of the opposition party. If the midterms were today any race won by a Democrat in 2020 by up to nine points would likely flip. Any race won by a Democrat up to 18-points would potentially be in play. Sound crazy? We already saw evidence of this in last November’s elections. In Virginia, where Joe Biden won by ten-points, Republicans flipped it. In New Jersey where Biden won by 16-points – the incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy hung on by the skin of his teeth. Conditions for Democrats have only worsened over the past two months. That’s the view of the possible, if not likely, this year. Internals for Republicans across the country, and certainly in Florida, are the best they’ve been since the onset of the polling age in the 1930’s.


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