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Implications of the Flores Flip in Texas
Bottom Line: Many Texans voted for a Republican for the first time in their lifetimes on Tuesday. Most notably, Elon Musk took the opportunity to say there will be a red wave in November and is leaning towards Ron DeSantis for President in 2024. As loaded as all of the Elon material may be I’ll stay focused, for the purpose of this story, on what the implications of what one Congressional race held in Texas may mean. Mexican-born Republican Mayra Flores flipped Texas’ 34th Congressional district Tuesday night. On one hand, she’ll be forced to run again in just a few months to remain in Congress. On another hand the seat she’s currently in won’t exist as currently configured due to redistricting in Texas. But at the same time the implications could be many.
In Tuesday’s Q&A addressed the prospect of Biden’s open border policies backfiring for Democrats. As I said: By a margin of 65% to 28%, recent polling shows Hispanic voters believe the border should be closed and most recently only 44% of Hispanic/Latino voters approve of Joe Biden’s performance – a number that falls to 39% in Florida. Much has been made of the shift to the right by Hispanic voters. Current polling continues to support that notion. Legal immigrants and Hispanic voters generally are rebelling against President Biden and his open border policies. Right on cue was Tuesday’s election result in a South Texas district. Flores didn’t just flip the seat. She won comfortably by eight percent. How significant is that win? Here are the last three election wins in that district:
- 2016: D+25%
- 2018: D+20%
- 2020: D+14%
Here’s a district, which is 85% Hispanic, that’s gone from a 25-point advantage for Democrats six years ago to swinging for a Republican by 8-points today. This trend also supports two key notions on the right. That Republicans have been making gains with Hispanic voters as well – as Republicans have gained ground in this majority Hispanic district for four consecutive elections now. It’s a special election in a district that soon won’t exist as it currently does, but it very much could prove to be a precursor of what’s to come.