Florida’s First 2022 Election Results & Peaked Inflation? - Top 3 Takeaways – June 21st, 2022
- Unlawful on its face. Insert topic here. That could apply to a lot in our society today. President Biden’s border policy – including the violation of the court-ordered remain in Mexico policy. Yep, unlawful on its face. President Biden’s COVID-19 vaccine mandates. Yep, unlawful on its face. But Biden’s lawless executive actions aren’t the source of that specific quote from a recent decisive court decision. That instead is what Florida’s First District Court of Appeal ruled on Friday regarding the state’s recently ratified Congressional map. Specifically, the quote was in response to Judge Layne’s Smith’s original stay of the map and implementation (for about ten minutes) of a Harvard professor’s map. The ruling formalized what was largely already known – that Governor DeSantis’ Congressional map would be the map of record for this fall’s midterm elections. As was stated by the court in response to the suit led by the political interest group Black Voters Matter... The temporary injunction before us on appeal does not just return the parties to the condition that existed before the subject matter at the center of the present controversy arose, i.e., before SB 2-C became law. The order does much more. It gives the appellees affirmative relief by requiring the secretary to conduct the 2022 congressional elections under an entirely new, unenacted plan recently proposed by the appellees during the nascent litigation. In the order, the circuit court even acknowledges that it is crafting a remedy for the appellees until there can be a trial. The grant of this provisional remedy, unmoored from an adjudication, was an unauthorized exercise of judicial discretion, making the temporary injunction unlawful on its face. As far as legal rulings go, that wasn’t just a win for DeSantis and the state – the deciding opinion was the equivalent of a Roman Reigns style WWE Smackdown. I’m still waiting for Florida’s news organizations to report how the state’s map really isn’t racist after all – which of course we know isn’t forthcoming. I’ll not hold my breath, and neither will a quarter of the candidates down ballot running for a seat in the Florida Legislature this fall. That’s because...
- The field is set but the race has already been won for many. Friday’s filing deadline in Florida for this year’s election cycle has come and gone with at least 36 members of the Florida Legislature having already won their races without having to win an election. That’s what happens when you have no competition and that’s a number that will likely go higher as the state finalizes last-minute filers to see if they legally qualified for the ballot. What’s especially notable about the high number – which is largely a result of Democrats not being able to field candidates in many races – is that the redistricted state maps were generally seen as being somewhat favorable for Florida’s Democrats as was illustrated by a unanimous vote in the state senate and in a more contested but still bipartisan vote in the state house. What this points to above all else is the state of the Democrat party in Florida along with the political mood of the country. Republicans are well on their way to maintaining a record majority in both chambers of our state government entering next year. Based off of qualifying alone, Republicans are already holding a 24-5 advantage in the House and 7-1 advantage in the state Senate, again numbers which will likely go higher once the paperwork shuffle is accounted for, before any elections have been held in Florida.
- Relief on the way? If oil prices have peaked that’d be great news for everyone – even those driving EVs, as there’s no bigger driver of inflation than what’s most commonly used to drive stuff in society period. After flirting with $5 per gallon in Florida, including exceeding those levels in parts of it (Palm Beach County), average gas prices are finally lower for about the first time in two months. While prices remain over 30 cents higher than a month ago, and close to $2 higher than a year ago – any relief is welcomed. But the question is could more be on the way? The answer appears to be yes. The price of oil, at around $110 per barrel, is the lowest it's been in four weeks – or right around the time we were paying about 30 cents less than we are today. That means prices should gradually slide lower over the next couple of weeks to back around the $4.50 level. The question is what comes next. And based on current US energy policy – that's up to the economy. If there’s a lot of relief at the pump on the way – it’s likely a sign of recession. But the glass half full approach is this... The good thing about a bad economy is that stuff gets cheaper. So, the question is do we want a little relief with a slow growth economy, or do we want a lot of relief because of a recession? I know we’d all prefer a good economy with lower prices but that’s not currently an option given the policy positions of our current president. Elections have consequences. In any event there’s at least a little relief on the way and perhaps room for a little more optimism going forward as well. There is now a chance the worst of our 41-year high inflation is behind us with at least a little relief on the way.