Game on for Florida’s Election Cycle - Top 3 Takeaways – August 8th, 2022 

Game on for Florida’s Election Cycle - Top 3 Takeaways – August 8th, 2022 

1. And the election cycle begins in Florida. Actually, with the ability to have vote-by-mail ballots tabulated up to 40 days away from Election Day, it – being this year’s midterm election cycle – has already been underway for weeks. But today is the day voting begins to kick into high gear with early voting opening up in many parts of the state – including Palm Beach County which is operating 21 early voting locations from 10am to 7pm daily through the 21st. Miami-Dade is also underway today with varying hours at 23 locations through the 21st (the first round of early voting hours in Dade is 7am to 3pm through Friday). In what’s one of the most anticipated midterm elections cycles I’ve covered, if not the most anticipated (and I’ve covered them all starting with 1998), we'll begin to get a sense of voter enthusiasm in Florida. I’m watching three keys and three numbers in this primary cycle. Those keys and those numbers are 1.3%, 27% and 29.1%. What the heck are those? 1.3% is the voter registration lead Republicans currently have over Democrats heading into this primary election day. When all votes are tabulated, I'll be interested to see where the partisan voter split falls in relation to voter registration. If republicans represent greater than 1.3% of all ballots cast, it would be an indication they’re set to outperform in Florida this November. If democrats narrow that margin below 1.3%, it could be a sign they’re set to outperform expectations this November. But it’s not just about those party primaries either.  
2. Partisan turnout will have a lot to say about how school board races will go in just over two weeks. With more focus on these races by partisans than any anytime previously, will the energy result in more votes? In the early stages of various movements, one of the challenges is attempting to discern if there’s a broad movement which is represented by highly vocal and engaged grassroots leaders or if those highly vocal and engaged grassroots leaders are the extent of a “movement”. Virginia's election last fall, which centered around school board and education issues seemed to suggest this movement is something bigger. In Florida, Governor DeSantis’ school board endorsements, likewise make this feel like something bigger. But will it all really translate? The 27% figure is the total turnout from 2018’s election cycle. Voter apathy for the midterm election primaries reached an all-time low in Florida in 1998 – when only 17% of Florida’s registered voters bothered to cast a ballot. We’ve bounced around a bit since with a turnout most recently checking in at that 27% figure four years ago. While barely having more than one in four voters cast ballots in elections is pretty poor any way you slice it – there's a lot that can be inferred by it. It’s no secret higher profile races drive higher turnout in elections. Four years ago, we had wide open primary races for governor in both major parties which helped drive much higher turnout than the paltry 18% who bothered casting ballots from the prior midterm cycle. With only democrats having a competitive race for governor this year, can Florida top 27%? If we can, it’d likely be a sign of higher engagement of NPA’s along with better than usual turnout for republicans given the circumstances at the top of the ticket for this primary cycle. Outsized GOP turnout is also critical to turnover numerous school board seats across the state. If turnout is above 27%, it likely means many new school board members will be sworn in this cycle. If it’s below 27%, the status quo will likely prevail. And then there’s the 29.1%. That’s the percentage of registered NPA’s and minor party affiliated voters in Florida currently.  
3. They’ve always been the least likely to participate in Florida’s primary elections. And for obvious reasons given that Florida’s a closed primary state. How motivated to vote will they be this year? That matters for multiple reasons. First, enthusiasm heading into November among non-partisans. Second, once again the fate of many school board races. This election cycle is the first in Florida’s history in which republicans have a registration advantage over democrats. The reason why republicans have managed to control the state government for 24 years, while being the minority party, is due to most of Florida’s NPA’s historically breaking right on Election Day. If there’s to be meaningful change with school boards in Florida this cycle – the NPA’s are a key to making it happen. Thus far 16.5% of all votes tabulated for Florida’s primaries have been cast by NPA and minor party affiliated voters (based on tabulated vote-by-mail ballots). That’s up considerably from 10.4% who voted prior to Election Day four years ago. NPA’s do appear to be far more engaged. When those least likely to vote in elections are suddenly voting in meaningfully higher numbers, it’s historically been a sign change is coming. In this case, the change in Florida’s primaries would ironically be represented in the form of non-partisan races. It’s game on for Florida’s 2022 election cycle.