Florida’s Primaries - The Status Quo, Except Races Closest to Home - Top 3

Florida’s Primaries - The Status Quo, Except Races Closest to Home – Top 3 Takeaways – August 25th, 2022 

1. Status Quo. The more things change the more they stayed the same in Florida’s political scene in the August primary elections. Low turnout, with only 26% of Florida’s eligible voters casting ballots, a figure which was lower than four years ago. The favorites winning all of the higher profile races across the state. Broward’s voters voting themselves another property tax increase. A Democrat Congressional candidate, Val Demmings, explicitly stating that if Republicans win elections Blacks will become property. Near equally absurd pollsters producing absurd polls. Absurd reporting citing the absurd polling results without any context provided regarding the historical accuracy, or the lack thereof as the case may be, of the pollsters. Remember that University of North Florida poll breathlessly reported last week showing Fried with a four-point lead over Crist and Demmings a four-point lead over Rubio? Here’s what I said about it last week: Fried +4%, Crist +32%. What are those? The results of two separate polls conducted yesterday. Yeah, no kidding. The University of North Florida’s polling shows Fried primed for what would be considered a bigtime upset win next Tuesday. Pollster St. Pete Polls shows Nikki’s already been waxed and just hasn’t officially been informed yet. The University of North Florida polling purported a margin of error rate of 3.4%. The St. Pete Poll sports a margin of error rate of 2.7%. What’s this show? One of these pollsters is completely full of poo. You could apply the maximum margin of error to both of these polls and still end up with a result one week from election day that’s separated by 30-points. This is but the latest example of why so many people don’t trust polls and why it’s absurd to ever pick just one of them to latch onto or report on as the case may be. And btw, the poll which shows Fried is set to pull the big upset win next Tuesday is one which also shows Rubio trailing Demmings by 4. But then again that same pollster had Biden winning Florida two years ago and Gillum and Nelson winning four years ago. In fact, their track record is so awful – they've historically been wrong more than they’ve been right. Only 40% of their polling results have proven accurate – which means their polling result in reality, is likely bad news for Fried and good news for Rubio. Once again, I’ve not made a career out of being wrong, though it’s remarkable how many people have. So yeah, generally Tuesday’s primaries produced more of the same. Right down to democrats nominating a candidate for governor they’d nominated for governor eight years ago. But there was an exception to the status quo and it pertained to Tuesday’s biggest winner...   
2. Governor DeSantis. No, he wasn’t even on the ballot as he had no GOP challenger and it's not specifically because he’s running against Charlie Crist, though that probably doesn’t hurt. It’s because his unprecedented move in endorsing school board candidates paid off bigtime statewide. Historically 95% of incumbents have won reelection to local non-partisan races in Florida. DeSantis’ endorsements shattered that dynamic and in the process, will lead to a shaking up of schools-boards across the state. 25 of DeSantis’ 30 school board candidates won out outright on Tuesday including flipping four of seven incumbent seats that Florida’s Democratic Party also endorsed. That’s huge for obvious reasons. What’s also huge is what specifically played out in Miami-Dade where two of those endorsed candidates, Roberto Alonzo and Monica Colucci won seats – with Colucci specifically ousting a 24-year incumbent in the process. Having two of DeSantis’ picks on the largest school district board in the state and 4th largest nationally is a game change of sorts. The kind which speaks to the fact that Parental Rights in Education is hugely important to parents and that the energy directed at school boards the past couple of years has legs. Also, that the political conversion of Hispanics towards the right in South Florida in recent years likewise has legs. While turnout was light on Tuesday, the message sent by those who did was loud heading into November. And that hopefully leads to... 
3. Better candidates and greater engagement in future elections. I sincerely mean no disrespect to those who challenged in various local non-partisan races this cycle and lost. I’m appreciative for those who step up and put themselves on the line so we have choices. With that said many wondered why Governor DeSantis didn’t endorse more candidates, especially school board candidates, across the state (including no endorsements taking place in Broward or Palm Beach County races). While there were candidates in some races which seemed to support his platform, he wasn’t personally putting his name and endorsement behind them. With the evidence in hand that once seemingly safe non-partisan races can be won by challengers, with a push from the gov, it’s my hope this leads to still more and perhaps better candidates entering the ring the next time around. As stated at the onset. The status quo won out in many ways on Tuesday, but in many races closest to home – it didn’t. And that has me excited for the future.