Brian Mudd

Brian Mudd

There are two sides to stories and one side to facts. That's Brian's mantra and what drives him to get beyond the headlines with daily stories driven...Full Bio

 

Weather Hype vs. Weather Pragmatism & DeSantis Derangement Syndrome

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Weather Hype vs. Weather Pragmatism & DeSantis Derangement Syndrome – Top 3 Takeaways – September 23rd, 2022 

  1. Weather hype & weather pragmatism. Looking at spaghetti models for tropical disturbances can kind of be like searching for potential symptoms for what ails you online. If you look hard enough, you’ll likely find something which suggests you’re screwed. The fact of the matter is modeling has dramatically improved over the years. The fact of the matter is also that even the very best modeling contains meaningful margins of error. The more highly developed a center of circulation, the more reliable the modeling happens to be. That makes hurricanes more accurate to forecast than tropical storms and tropical storms more accurate to forecast than disturbances – which lack a center of circulation. With all of the advances in modeling here’s the reality on the ground. The five-day cone of error for a hurricane via the National Hurricane Center contains a margin of error rate of 210 miles. And as we’re looking at the current cone for the potential impact of a hurricane somewhere within our state next week here’s some perspective on what that means. If you travel across the state from Fort Lauderdale to Naples, it’s 108 miles. That means the Hurricane Center’s five-day cone for a hurricane has margin of error that's as extensive as making a round trip across the state in South Florida. As the whole state of Florida is effectively within the cone of uncertainty, as the hurricane center explains, the 5-year average shows tropical systems remain within the 5-day window 60%-70% of the time. There’s an old joke that the safest place to be is in the center of the cone five days out. That’s to say a lot can and most often changes. The pragmatic approach is to be prepared for the potential impact of a hurricane coming out of this weekend, pay attention to the Hurricane Center’s map and our reporting...and to eat spaghetti as opposed to looking at tropical models of it. 
  2. DeSantis Derangement Syndrome. Florida’s latest report from the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles shows a record number of Californians, Pennsylvanians, Oregonians, New Yorkers and former residents of New Jersey and Washington relocated to Florida last month. Year-to-date net migration into Florida via DMV tag changes has totaled 321,881. Huge. The funny thing is, the more Governor DeSantis is demonized nationally, the more bluestaters are fleeing for Florida. This is but the latest example of just how far removed from reality those in legacy news media really are. DeSantis specifically, and Florida’s freedom generally, became the pandemic boogieman of legacy news reporting and the Biden administration. The result. Record domestic tourism the moment bluestaters were free from their pandemic lockdowns and record net migration into Florida from those who visited and decided to stay. Undeterred and doubling down, Trump Derangement Syndrome has been rapidly morphing in DeSantis Derangement Syndrome. A condition under which the Governor of New York, in her election bid, is campaigning on Republicans in her state moving to Florida and California’s Governor advertising in our state in his reelection bid and even challenging our governor to a debate. The result, a record number of each state’s residents relocating to ours last month along with other left coast blue staters. Notice that every record that’s being set for net migration into our state is happening from those fleeing blue states from literally every corner of the country. Related... 
  3. Record voter registration advantages for Republicans in Florida as well. The bluestaters continue to bring their politics with them and Florida’s Republican party continues to post a record advantage in the process. The Republican voter registration advantage over Democrats last month grew by another 38,729 voters. A total in just the past month that’s greater than the winning margin for Governor DeSantis four years ago. Record voter registration advantages in Florida is leading to record momentum for Florida’s Republicans heading into Election Day. Whether Republicans are able to win a wave election nationally in November remains to be seen. But in Florida, our waves will almost certainly be red as opposed to blue on Election Day and they’ll extend well beyond our beaches. 

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