Oil, SWF Real-Estate & Happiness – Top 3 Takeaways – October 21st
- Our oil situation is much worse than it was in 1984. On back of President Biden’s announcement, that this week’s announced additional release of oil from our strategic reserves isn’t politically motivated there’s been some fairly credible reporting from most news outlets for a change. It’s been widely reported that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being drawn down to the lowest level since 1984. That’s true. However, that’s only half of the story. For most Americans the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is an opaque concept which hasn’t seemingly had a tangible impact on our lives. For that matter, do you even know where they’re located? The reserves are stored in salt caverns in coastal areas of Louisiana and Texas, near where our largest historical production has occurred. But about the whole 1984 thing. In 1984, the United States averaged oil consumption of 15.6 million barrels per day. Most recently we’re using 19.8 million barrels per day. In other words, while our reserves are back to 84’s levels, our energy consumption is 27% higher today – making the ‘84 comparison not at all applicable. The drawdowns relative to US consumption are the lowest since the United States first fully established the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 1973. In fact, while the US is the 3rd most populous country in the world, with the highest oil consumption in the world, our reserves are now only the 11th highest in the world. The United States is now effectively as energy vulnerable as we’ve been adjusted for population and consumption levels since World War II.
- Picking up the pieces. It’s only been a few weeks since one of the most devastating hurricanes hit Florida in our state’s history and left Southwest Florida in pieces. That was true of bridges, homes and even families. But for as bad as the devastation was and has been... There have likewise been incredible comeback stories. Temporary bridges built in days, others within three weeks. A wedding ring recovered from a completely destroyed house. And speaking of houses... According to the Wall Street Journal, buyers are flocking to Southwest Florida’s most impacted communities looking to pick up the pieces. The report which quotes a top area real-estate agent said,” It’s pretty much business as usual, I haven’t had anyone reach out who wants to stop their home search”. And in fact, demand is so much stronger than available inventory in many communities due to the damage, there’s an active effort by agents to reach out to owners of off-market but damaged properties to see if they’re willing to sell. This is great news for a few reasons. After the devastating ‘04-’05 hurricane seasons, we had a one-two-three punch of widespread damage from hurricanes creating a property insurance crisis, coinciding with the onset of the Great Recession which crashed demand in addition to the housing and insurance markets. We already had a property insurance crisis preceding Ian, and the real-estate market had already peaked as well. But what’s different this time is the demand we’re currently seeing which should help expedite picking up the pieces all of the way around.
- Is 44 really as good as it gets? Florida has the largest senior population, and overall, the average age of a Floridian is the fifth highest in the country. Stereotypes exist for a reason and to that end it’s why Jerry Seinfeld’s parents moved to Del Boca Vista over thirty years ago. But if the latest research is true, life peaked for most older transplants before they came here. A new Mixbook survey called The Pursuit (of Peak) Happiness, identified the peak age for happiness in every state. So, before going there, let’s play along. What age has been the best age of your life? And ‘Bidenflation notwithstanding, is your life, by way of happiness, generally getting better or worse? The Mixbook survey of 3,442 adults over the age of 65 said the best age of their life was...44. That was true in terms of the national average. It was true of Floridians as well. It’s kind of a sad thought to hear a survey of people over 65 say their peak of happiness happened over twenty years ago. It’s understandable to a point. After all, at 44 most people are relatively healthy and are established in their careers and with their family. What it doesn’t necessarily speak to, are retirements working out as planned. Having a sense of purpose, in addition to financial flexibility, is no doubt important. Now, it’s still a glass half full kind of story. The average age of a Floridian right now is 42 – which somewhat ironically matches my age. The upshot of this is that life should generally be getting better from here over the next couple of years for most. But about the whole happiness thing. Here’s another thought. I don’t believe it's possible to ever truly be happy without putting God in the forefront of our lives. That’s true at any age, but especially for those of a certain age who aren’t as happy as they used to be. This may well be the missing ingredient and it’s the most important one. And the benefit of being retired is to be relatively free of distractions from the bigger picture. I don’t believe 44 has to be as good as it gets. I believe that if we focus on what’s most important the best is yet to come.