One Week Away from Election Day & Hurricane Hype – Top 3 Takeaways – November 1st, 2022
- One week to go before Election Day. But for a record number of Floridians, it’s already come and gone. Our state continues to lead the country in voting with nearly 3 million votes cast thus far. Its clear enthusiasm is high here and its clear Republicans generally are benefitting from it. As I mentioned a week ago... The DeSantis-Crist debate is done and it’s looking increasingly likely that Florida’s original Orangeman and favorite political chameleon, Charlie Crist will be too. Nate Silver’s 538, the favorite prognostication service of the political left shows Crist with just a 4% chance of winning. And the news for him gets worse from there. The RealClear Politics prognostication shows America’s governor winning the election by nearly 15-points. A margin which, if it came to pass, would be the largest in a governor’s race in Florida in 40 years - when Bob Graham was governor and Democrats ruled the roost. In other words, what’s shaping up in Florida with Election Day just two weeks away is potentially historic. How historic? If DeSantis were to win by anything close to that margin, it would be the largest margin of victory by any Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida since 1868. Yes, 1868 – when Harrison Reed rode Abraham Lincoln’s coattails to beat George Scott in an election with a total of 22,152 votes cast statewide. Thinking back to the tense final weeks in Florida four years ago, and just how close we came to having Tallahassee’s favorite bisexual criminal, Andrew Gillum, running our state – it's somewhat stunning just how much has changed. So, while an awful lot has changed in four years, what’s changed in a week? Nothing good for Florida’s Democrats. Charlie Crist’s 538 odds of winning are now at just 3%. And Florida’s Republicans are continuing to extend their voting advantage over Democrats with every passing early voting update. The Republican ground game in Florida is the most impressive it’s ever been at this point in an election cycle. It’s one week to go before Election Day in Florida, and it's shaping up to be the reddest up and down voters’ ballots we’ve ever seen in this state. But what about the rest of the political story?
- Depends on who you ask. Throughout the course of this political cycle, it hasn’t mattered who you asked about which party would control the House come January. Conservative pundits, liberal pundits. Right-leaning prognosticators, left-leaning prognosticators, they’ve all said the same thing. Republicans are especially well positioned to seize control. As for the Senate..., and all throughout the course of this cycle, it depended on who you’ve asked. And that remains the case as we are just one week away. Nate Silver’s 538 calls the Senate race a dead heat with Democrats currently ever-so-slightly favored to maintain control by maintaining a 50-50 split. Over at RealClear Politics they’re projecting a 53-47 majority for the GOP – with Oz holding Pennsylvania for Republicans and pickups in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Those are two very different views of the possible. But here’s the reality on the ground. The worst-case scenario for Republicans in the Senate has shifted from potentially even losing seats over the summer, to the status quo with a 50-50 split at present. And the upside, it’s all one sided at this point. Republican candidates are all either leading or are within the margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin. Those are seven races; Republicans only need to win three of them to gain control of the senate. I like those odds. So, while control of the senate depends on who you’re asking a week away from Election Day, we’re somewhere between status quo and GOP control. And there’s nothing about this Election Cycle that suggests the current mood of the country is “status quo”.
- The finish line is in sight for another hurricane season. And though Lisa currently has Belize in her sights, it’s shaping up to be the calmest in years. Yes, there’s Hurricane Ian, but generally this season’s been anything but the historically active one it was predicted to be. Entering November with just twelve named storms, it’s been the calmest season in seven. 2015’s hurricane season was the last in which we entered November with 12 or fewer named storms. Through October, this year’s hurricane season has been 43% less active, and compared to the record setting 2020 cycle, there’s been a full 52% less activity. The finish line is in sight and thankfully it’s not come close to living up to the preseason hype.