Some People Like Putin, Many More Love DeSantis – Top 3 Takeaways – November 29th, 2022
- As many Americans view Vladimir Putin very favorably as do Kyrsten Sinema. That might seem like the most random and odd top takeaway I’ve ever had. And while it just might be the oddest, though there would be some strong competition, it’s not random. If you’ve ever taken a look at some of the people around you and wondered just what the heck is wrong with them...we now may have the answer. They’re probably Putin supporters. Now the reason this is my top takeaway today isn’t really about Putin or Sinema, it’s really about the favorability rating of our governor nationally, but before getting to DeSantis I felt compelled to share what I viewed as the most eye-opening favorability information surveyed by Harvard-Harris over Thanksgiving. They surveyed the favorability rating of twenty national, and in some cases, a la Putin, international figures. As the survey revealed...six percent of Americans look at Vladimir Putin very favorably, which tied Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema with the lowest “very favorable” rating of all. All in, a total of 12% of Americans look at Putin, as he continues to bomb innocent Ukrainians at will, at least favorably (maybe it’s those legacy six pack ab shirtless pics of him?). I’m pretty sure that explains a lot of the seemingly unexplainable in our society. Along with this related nugget. 15% of adults have either never heard of Vladimir Putin or don’t have an opinion. For all of society's ills not explained by the 12%, they’re probably answered within the subsequent 15%. So yeah, just over a quarter of the country either thinks a man who bombs women and children in Europe for effect is a pretty great guy or doesn’t have an opinion about him. So, there’s that. And then there’s this...which thankfully speaks to the other end of the American collective...
- Ron DeSantis has the highest net favorability rating in the country and Donald Trump has the highest overall favorability rating. There’s not a lot of love going around, or goodwill felt by most Americans with our current crop of leaders but there is one who stands out above the rest. Of the aforementioned twenty political figures sampled, only three: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, and our Governor Ron DeSantis, have net positive favorability ratings. The aforementioned Putin is thankfully the most disliked of the bunch with a net negative 61% favorability rating (showing sanity does at least still exist with most of us). The political mood of the country is clearly a sour one with significant disdain for Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala Harris and Joe Manchin who all sport net negative favorability ratings reaching the double-digits. And as for our current and former president... As mentioned, Trump has the highest overall favorability percentage at 44%, however his overall favorability rating remains underwater with 49% currently viewing him unfavorably. Still, that’s better than Biden’s net negative rating of 7%. And that takes us to Governor DeSantis. About a quarter of the country still isn’t really aware of what he’s about, but for those who are aware, he has a net favorability rating that’s double that of anyone else sampled at positive 8%. For DeSantis’ future political positioning this is the best of both worlds. Most already know him and like him and there’s still room for growth. Rest assured this will only add to the 2024 conversation he already couldn’t escape. And speaking of the polls...
- They weren’t that bad after all. Yes, the red wave that never materialized outside of Florida this election cycle was largely fed by polls and prediction sites like the historically left leaning 538, that predicted a GOP congressional power sweep. At the point where even many on the left were projecting complete GOP congressional control this cycle, along with historical midterm trends, it was easy to be duped. I was to a certain extent. But now that California has all but two House races that are at least 95% reporting (yes, there are two California Congressional Districts, three weeks after Election Day which still haven’t counted over one in ten votes which had been cast), we know where the final national popular vote will land for the 2022 Election Cycle. GOP +3. Republicans have won exactly 3% more of the total vote across the country than Democrats. And what did the average of all generic ballot polls say on Election Day? Republicans by 2.5%. That’s really accurate. The average of 17 national pollsters produced a result that was within a half percent of the actual outcome and actually still slightly under-sampled Republican support across the country. So, as it turned out, the generic polls weren’t that bad after all – in fact, the aggregate of them was nearly perfect. It was the polling within certain states and specific races which proved to be at times off base.