Q&A of the Day – Palm Beach County’s Political Evolution
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio It’s huge that the DEM voter lead in PBC has dropped by 38% in ten years. When was the peak of the DEM lead in the county & how does the shift compare to the state over the same time?
Bottom Line: I heard from a lot of folks, from across the country, when tweeting about that one on Tuesday. It’s easy for those of us who live locally to forget, but the perception of Palm Beach County’s politics for most around the country is still that of pregnant, hanging and dimpled chads followed by a series of elections supervisors they were more likely to be able to name than their own. And of course, the county’s elections issues were a byproduct of the quality, and political party of elected officials generally. So as surprising as a Republican controlled county commission may be for those who’ve lived here for a long period of time, it’s perhaps even more surprising for those who haven’t. Anyway, to address the question you’ve presented...
So yes, as I pointed out, Tuesday was a big day in Palm Beach County. As tweeted: Last November the county broke for Republicans in all state offices for the first time. Today the County Commission flips to a GOP majority. Democrats still hold a voter registration advantage in PBC, but its shrunk by 38% over the past decade. So, on that note when was turning point politically in Palm Beach County? When was the peak of Democrat dominance over Republicans locally? The state maintains records of voter registration information by county dating back to 1995, so that’s the window with which we’ll begin looking through. At the end of 1995, the Democrat lead over Republicans in Palm Beach County was 38,801 voters. That’s a number which continued to steadily rise in coming years, peaking with a total Democrat registration advantage of 138,400 voters. And when was the peak?
- Exxon Mobil was the world’s largest company (today it’s not even worth a quarter of Apple – which is the current number one)
- The spacecraft Curiosity landed on Mars
- Queen Elizabeth II celebrated her Diamond Jubilee
- Facebook had more than one billion users worldwide for the first time
- Superstorm Sandy ravaged the northeast just before Barack Obama beat out Mitt Romney for a second term
Yes, 2012 wasn’t that long ago and yes, it also happened to be the example I just happened to use in comparing what’s happened over the past 10+ years. Currently democrats hold a voter registration advantage of 101,548 voters in PBC. That’s a decline of 36,852 voters since the peak. And of course, a margin which wasn’t too wide for Republicans to overcome it in November winning all Florida cabinet races, and flipping two of three county commission races on the ballot in the process. So, it's time to compare what’s happened locally with what’s happened across the state, as Florida’s Republican party has gained a voter registration advantage for the first time in the state’s history.
At the end of 2012 Florida’s Democrats held a voter registration advantage of 558,272 voters. Looking back at Palm Beach County’s role, you’ll see that back then we accounted for about a quarter of that advantage. Most recently Republicans have a voter registration advantage of 356,212 voters. That’s a stunning ten-year turnaround of 914,484 voters. So, of Florida’s 67 counties, Palm Beach County has contributed 4% of the total political turnaround over the past decade. Obviously, our county’s story has played an outsized role in the state’s political evolution from being considered the ultimate swing state, with Democrats having always held a voter registration advantage, into what’s now considered a red state – with Republicans sporting an ever-growing voter registration advantage within it.
This turnaround reminds me of just how much has changed from a point of political pragmatism as well. My saying, and message to Republicans in statewide races generally, used to be that the key to winning elections in Florida was to “lose well” in South Florida. So much has changed that now they can outright win in South Florida. It’s all part of Florida’s story that gives you something to feel good about.