Q&A of the Day – Is Governor DeSantis as Popular as He’s Perceived to Be?
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Today’s Entry: Hi Brian, I have a question that came up when talking with a colleague at work about Gov. DeSantis that I thought you might be able to address. My co-worker hypothesized that DeSantis’ huge win in November was as much a product of Charlie Crist being a weak candidate as it was DeSantis being popular. He thinks DeSantis might be overplaying his hand and that it could backfire at some point. What do you think?
Bottom Line: Yep, I’ve heard this line of thinking too. You’re unlikely to find a bunch of people on the left in our state that openly are going on the offensive with this type of argument. Most objective Democrats are far more concerned with attempting to sort out the mess that is the current state of their party in Florida before the 2024 election cycle. A cycle that of course won’t feature DeSantis on a general election ballot unless he’s the Republican candidate for president. When parsing the potential validity of the argument that DeSantis’ perceived popularity is a bit of a mirage due to the weakness of Charlie Crist specifically, there are a few different angles which help to provide an answer. So, let’s get to it.
One of the best ways to attempt to discern if a particular candidate, or party’s success, is a byproduct of weak candidates (as opposed to the strength of a candidate or party) is voter turnout. Large wins with high turnout may tell a different story than large wins with low turnout. Here’s how turnout in 2022 compared to turnout four years earlier and what the historical average has been in Florida’s midterm cycles.
Average midterm turnout percentage since 2000:
- 53%
Turnout in 2018 election:
- 63%
Turnout in 2022 election:
- 54%
Now, on the one hand, one can look at the 9% decrease in voter turnout from 2018 to 2022 and begin to draw the conclusion your colleague has...that there was lower voter turnout, specifically among democrats, perhaps due to their lack of enthusiasm with Crist having been at the top of the ticket. But then there are two other counter points to that argument. The first, you might have noticed when I broke out the voter turnout info. While voter turnout was lower last year than in 2018, when DeSantis edged out Andrew Gillum by less than a half of one percentage point, it remained above average. That included a higher voter turnout rate than in either 2014 or 2010 when Rick Scott won narrow victories. This indicates there definitely was something specific to the DeSantis story. Secondarily, let’s say voter turnout was 9% higher last year, equaling the 2018 turnout levels. Even if every one of those voters had voted for Crist over DeSantis, DeSantis would still have won by double-digits. In other words, while I don’t doubt some democrats that voted in 2018 sat out 2022 because of Crist, it didn’t impact the result of the Governor’s race and it wasn’t significant enough to have changed the narrative of DeSantis as a highly popular governor. And on that note...
Gubernatorial approval ratings are rarely discussed outside of election cycles, but we do have a recent read on DeSantis’ courtesy of Morning Consult. He has most recently had a net positive approval rating of 12% in Florida which is an extremely strong showing in our state given that republicans only have about a 2% voter registration advantage. And then there’s the more common polling that’s done of DeSantis these days. National polling. It’s a net positive 13% rating. So, in answer to your question and for you to share with your co-worker... DeSantis, empirically, is that popular in Florida and across the country for that matter.