TIPP’s 2024 Presidential Prediction, Florida’s Supreme Court & Memorial Day – Top 3 Takeaways – May 26th, 2023
- Hold the door. The 2024 Presidential race only just really became real this week with the entrance of Governor DeSantis into the race, which by the way produced a record setting $8.2 million in fundraising within the first 24 hours, meaning all of the expected heavyweights are now in the race - (unless you consider Mike Pence or perhaps Glenn Youngkin heavyweights and in this context I don’t). However, the most accurate pollster of the 2020 election has come out with a bold statement, with a bold prediction for the 2024 presidential election. Republicans will win. In fact, in the TIPP research piece which articulates the view they didn’t just illustrate how and why they think the Republican nominee for president will win. The sub-headline to the story was this: The GOP’s odds of winning the White House in 2024 are better than ever. In the grand scheme of strong statements that’s an extremely solid pull. The story itself opens like this: The 2024 presidential election is still 534 days away, but the GOP's chances of winning the White House have never been brighter. The electoral map is looking favorable to the Republicans. Our analysis shows that if the GOP can win Arizona, its nominee can take the White House. That frames the research that’s presented the rest of the way. Highlights of what they present to make the case that the Electoral College map is ripe for the GOP are these: Based on states won in 2020 – the changes in the electoral vote count benefit Republicans by five Electoral College votes, or the equivalent of a small state, which could make the difference in a tight election. They also note that in their research, Viriginia – which broke for Joe Biden by ten points in 2020, but that shocked many by breaking for Glenn Youngkin the next year, is showing signs of staying right – as Youngkin is proving to be especially popular in the state. They also show Arizona as breaking back towards the right after extremely narrow losses by Republicans in the 2020 presidential race and 2022 governor’s race. Arizona’s new Democrat governor isn’t proving to be popular thus far and the illegal immigration crisis is the top issue in the state right now, even ahead of the economy. It’s an issue that makes Joe Biden, who brought it to them, an unpalatable candidate in that state next year. Quoting TIPP’s summary statement: In conclusion, the electoral college map and governorships strongly favor a Republican victory in the historic 2024 presidential election. Will they prove to be right next year? That remains to be seen. But they were right, the most right, of any national polling firm in the last presidential election. In other news...
- Florida has a new Supreme Court Justice. Oh, by the way... In other news this week... The United States Supreme Court is commonly known by the Chief Justice of the Court. As in “the Roberts” court currently. In Florida, our state Supreme Court might not be run by our governor, but it’s very much DeSantis’ court. Governor DeSantis appointed 6th District Court of Appeal Judge Meredith Sasso to Florida’s Supreme Court. This makes Meredith, 40, who is a UF grad and former counsel to then Governor Rick Scott, who was most recently retained by over 70% of voters just over two years ago, the seventh state Supreme Court Judge to be appointed in just over four years by DeSantis. Two of DeSantis’ original picks were sent to the federal court of appeals. A consistent theme in DeSantis’ selections has been picking young, but proven judges who are members of the Federalist Society. This positions Florida’s current Supreme Court, the DeSantis court, as one that could continue to preside over Florida well after DeSantis is no longer on the political scene. It could also serve as a potential bench for the United States Supreme Court. DeSantis’ first two picks were tapped by Trump to serve on a federal appeals court. And it was just Monday when DeSantis said the next President of the United States will likely have two Supreme Court nominations to make. DeSantis might not have just built his own state Supreme Court, he may well be laying the groundwork for his future intentions for remaking the United States Supreme Court.
- Freedom isn't free. Of all federal holidays none is more solemn or as significant as Memorial Day. Increasingly, the purpose and significance of the day of remembrance is blurred in our society. As Americans, we all have a responsibility on Memorial Day to pay homage to those who granted us freedom with their lives. It started with the 4,435 Americans who died in the American Revolution and has continued with over 7,000 Americans who've sacrificed their lives fighting terrorism around the world since 9/11. In the nearly 247 years as a country, over 1.5 million Americans have sacrificed their lives for freedom. Our freedom. The least we can do is take a little time one day a year to honor their sacrifice. After World War II, and at the time of the official declaration of Memorial Day as a federal day of remembrance in 1967, approximately 12% of the US population had served in the military. For those who survived the Great War and The Forgotten War, they didn't need a reminder of the sacrifices made by those who didn't return home. Today, under 1% of Americans serve. It's become easy for most to take for granted the freedom they enjoy. Over 80% of the world's population isn't free and the median per capita income outside of the United States is under $5,000 per year. Many in our society lack perspective because they never had it, weren't taught it or simply place politics disproportionately above what's most important. It's important that we all do our part to ensure we have perspective and share it with those in our lives. Freedom isn't free. It never has been. It's paved with the blood of more than 1.5 million Americans who laid down their lives in service to our country. It’s our duty as Americans to honor them and remember them this Memorial Day.