Q&A of the Day – What Must Happen For Democrats To Replace Joe Biden At The Convention
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Today’s Entry: Brian, as speculation runs rampant as to whether Democrats will opt to replace Joe Biden at the convention, what I haven’t heard is an outline of the process for actually doing so. Would you please explain how that process would work? Thank you.
Bottom Line: Let’s start this conversation with the first most important note of all. The most likely outcome of the Democrat’s convention in August is that Joe Biden will be the Democrat’s nominee for president. President Biden’s revealing debate performance (revealing for the masses – not those who’ve be paying attention) doesn’t change one immovable fact. Elections have consequences. Many will flippantly speak of Democrats pushing President Biden out of the way to nominate a new candidate for president at the convention. It doesn’t work that way. The election outcomes of the primary season created pledged delegates. Primary elections and caucuses are binding elections – they aren’t playtime in voting booths.
The definition of a pledged delegate is this: A pledged delegate is a delegate to a political party's presidential nominating convention that is "pledged" to support the candidate to whom they are allocated. And as for how many delegates are bound...
Here’s the breakout of Democrat delegate counts:
- Biden: 3,904 pledged delegates
- Uncommitted: 37 delegates
- Dean Philips: 5 pledged delegates
- Jason Palmer: 3 pledged delegates
Dean Philips has dropped out of the race meaning his 5 pledged delegates have been released allowing them to vote for whomever they’d like at the convention. What this means is that as of today there are exactly 42 unpledged delegates, or those who could chose to opt for a candidate other than Joe Biden for President of the United States...leaving them a minimum of 1,934 delegates short of being able to nominate a candidate not named Joe Biden for President of the United States. And I say at a minimum because that number would be assuming all unpledged delegates would line up behind the same alternative candidate. What this means is that practically, the only way Joe Biden will not be the Democrat’s candidate for president is if he drops out of the race or if he literally isn’t physically viable as a candidate by the convention (as in infirmed or dead).
The president has provided no indication that will be the case. Friday’s rally in Raleigh, North Carolina was an immediate affirmation of his intent to carry on. What’s more is that all of the Democrat’s top brass including former presidents Clinton and Obama have reaffirmed their support for Joe Biden. That matters because to the extent that some people have suggested that even the pledged delegates could opt to ignore their mandate to support Biden for president at the convention there is one clause that could open the door to the possibility.
Unlike Republican delegates which are bound to the candidate who won them, Democrats contain one possible out clause for even pledged delegates – it is this:
- (Pledged delegates must vote) in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them
So, in theory, if at least roughly half of Biden’s pledged delegates decided at the convention that they could not in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them they could theoretically defect. So that’s the other way that someone other than Biden could be the Democrat’s nominee if he chose not to drop out by the convention. While this is interesting in theory, it’s unlikely in reality. Pledged delegates for candidates are selected due to their loyalty to the candidate they’re representing. For example, remember when Barron Trump was being offered the opportunity to be a pledged delegate from Florida for his dad? Had he accepted the offer could you envision a scenario in which Barron would get to the convention and vote for Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley? And that’s the point here.
In theory, but also more or less in practical application, let's say for a minute that there would only be about 3,900 Americans who supported Joe Biden for president by the time of the August convention. These 3,900 people would be those people. They are Biden loyalists. But nevertheless, those are the three ways in which Democrats could end up with a new candidate. Joe Biden dropping out of the race before the convention. Biden becoming physically unable to accept the nomination. Pledged delegates using the “conscience clause” outlined by the DNC to defect. And if that did happen – get your popcorn ready.
Many pundits on both sides of the isle seem to think that if Democrats were to find a way to nominate a different candidate that would position them with a better opportunity to win. That belies political reality within the Democrat party. There is no party unity on whom the “backup” candidate would be. The impact of a brokered convention would likely lead to a rout of the party in November.